It's premature to call a top in Treasuries, which is not what this piece is meant to do. However as you can see, 30-yr. bond prices have gone virtually straight up over the last 10 weeks. Prices are well above their 2008 highs, which is the last time we had a global collapse.
Domestically we’re not creating jobs, there are serious troubles in Europe and China is slowing. Still it's not the end of the world. In my opinion, current circumstances do not justify Treasuries at these levels.
Bonds traders are smarter and have more foresight than equity traders and recent moves should tell investors how dire circumstances are out there. It's not Armageddon and, while I can justify prices at elevated levels to be nearly 10 basis points above the spike in 08’, 30-yr. bonds seem overdone.
Prices on the daily and weekly charts are overbought, but until those prices close under their nine-day MAs, I'm advising the sidelines. These levels in September 30-yr. bonds are at 149’4 and, in 10-yr notes, the pivot point is 133’16. Once these levels are penetrated, I will be looking to establish bearish trades via futures, options and NOB spreads.
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Treasuries: Where's The Top?
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