Monday, we looked at the Retail Sector XRT in detail.
We determined that Monday’s action is still within the range of the huge sell-off 2 weeks ago.
Plus, should XRT struggle to close out the month back above the 23-month moving average, it will indicate that consumer spending is in a 2-year business cycle contraction.
Granny Retail often works in tandem with the Transportation sector, seen through the lens of IYT.
IYT daily chart shows
- Price is under all indicators-January calendar range, 50 and 200-DMAs and in a distribution phase
- Transportation grossly underperforms the SPY
- Real Motion is in a death cross and bearish divergence to price.
- IYT did not have a clean bottoming formation.
The weekly chart while struggling, in contrast to XRT Retail, IYT remains above the 200-WMA (green).
Note the mean reversion on the weekly Real Motion indicator. But also note the bearish diversion with the 200-DMA above the 50-DMA (blue).
Can IYT help XRT relax?
Or will the current economic slowdown seen in the retail sector further drag down transportation?
Looking at the monthly chart:
We determined that XRT had to clear back above its 23-month moving average by March 31st or it closes out the first quarter in economic contraction based on a 2-year business cycle.
You can see here why it is so important to watch the monthly chart in IYT.
While Retail sits below the 23-month MA (blue), IYT holds it by a slim margin.
2 Key members of the Economic Modern Family are at a precipice.
IYT must hold around the current levels, which could help XRT relax.
It could just as easily close out the month under the 23-month MA, in which case you will have the consumer and the measure of how robust goods and people are moving both flashing a significant warning.
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
- S&P 500 (SPY) 574 the 200-DMA resistance
- Russell 2000 (IWM) Good bounce and needs so much more
- Dow (DIA) Back over the 200-DMA now 420 support
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 494 the 200-DMA resistance
- Regional banks (KRE) 58-59 to clear and one of the better-looking sectors
- Semiconductors (SMH) 245 overhead resistance
- Transportation (IYT) 65.00 pivotal
- Biotechnology (IBB) 130 support 140 to clear
- Retail (XRT) 70 support to hold and thru 72 way better