Transportation, Retail Sector at Crossroads as Economic Pressures Mount

Published 03/26/2025, 12:13 AM

Monday, we looked at the Retail Sector XRT in detail. 

We determined that Monday’s action is still within the range of the huge sell-off 2 weeks ago. 

Plus, should XRT struggle to close out the month back above the 23-month moving average, it will indicate that consumer spending is in a 2-year business cycle contraction. 

Granny Retail often works in tandem with the Transportation sector, seen through the lens of IYT. IYT-Daily Chart

IYT daily chart shows  

  1. Price is under all indicators-January calendar range, 50 and 200-DMAs and in a distribution phase 
  2. Transportation grossly underperforms the SPY 
  3. Real Motion is in a death cross and bearish divergence to price. 
  4. IYT did not have a clean bottoming formation. 

The weekly chart while struggling, in contrast to XRT Retail, IYT remains above the 200-WMA (green). IYT-Weekly Chart

Note the mean reversion on the weekly Real Motion indicator. But also note the bearish diversion with the 200-DMA above the 50-DMA (blue). 

Can IYT help XRT relax? 

Or will the current economic slowdown seen in the retail sector further drag down transportation? 

Looking at the monthly chart:

IYT-Monthly Chart

We determined that XRT had to clear back above its 23-month moving average by March 31st or it closes out the first quarter in economic contraction based on a 2-year business cycle. 

You can see here why it is so important to watch the monthly chart in IYT. 

While Retail sits below the 23-month MA (blue), IYT holds it by a slim margin. 

2 Key members of the Economic Modern Family are at a precipice. 

IYT must hold around the current levels, which could help XRT relax. 

It could just as easily close out the month under the 23-month MA, in which case you will have the consumer and the measure of how robust goods and people are moving both flashing a significant warning.

ETF Summary 

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below) 

  • S&P 500 (SPY) 574 the 200-DMA resistance 
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) Good bounce and needs so much more 
  • Dow (DIA) Back over the 200-DMA now 420 support 
  • Nasdaq (QQQ) 494 the 200-DMA resistance 
  • Regional banks (KRE) 58-59 to clear and one of the better-looking sectors 
  • Semiconductors (SMH) 245 overhead resistance 
  • Transportation (IYT) 65.00 pivotal 
  • Biotechnology (IBB) 130 support 140 to clear  
  • Retail (XRT) 70 support to hold and thru 72 way better 

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