The Nadex instrument US Smallcap 2000 uses TFZ14:NYB, The Russell 2000 Mini futures, as the underlying instrument.
We’re using an STRenko 12 Bar for an intraday perspective regarding harmonic rotations.
TF is at an interesting support test at the completion of a small harmonic pattern, Alternate Bullish bat, colored blue. It’s interesting because this test is two-fold, one, it is a completion of a bullish harmonic pattern, and two, this completion helped price test the Significant Level in relation to the larger harmonic pattern, colored green, which is still emerging.
Indications imply a hold above 1088.1 has a probability of either stalling or bouncing into resistance, in this case, the 1091.9 level, so this offers a long opportunity with the mindset that 1091.9 could hold price down so it’s a good place to take some profits or at least protect a long position, the risk is below 1086.8. However, if price is able to hold above 1091.9, the ideal targets are 1098 and 1106.5 with the initial scaling point at 1094.2.
Remember how the upside bias risk is below 1086.8? It’s because if price holds below there, then the downside bias reigns and completing the harmonic patterns below is the higher probability with downside targets at 1082, 1075.9, 1072 and 1067.5.
These targets may not all be reached within the specified term of the trade, so honor any of the targets as a potential “that’s all folks” regarding movement.
At this writing (October 7, 2014 at 11:00 CDT) TF is trading at 1087, very close to our important level of 1086.80. And given general market weakness, particularly in the Russell 2000, this level could break, but we believe that it will hold.
There is a Nadex listed binary option with a strike price of 1086 and expires today at 4:15 EDT. The market in this binary is 48 bid, 52 offered. Meaning that market believes there is more or less a 50/50 chance this level will hold.
We buy this option at 50 (Nadex listed daily options often trade at the mid-price between bid and ask, meaning that we risk $50 to make $50. However, that’s not all we’ll do. At the same time we sell the binary option with a strike price of 1090 at 32. On the surface, this risks $68 to make $32 but it completes our spread.
What happens today at 4:15? If TF is below 1086 the position loses $18 as both binary options settle at zero. If TF is above 1090 the position loses the same $18 as both options settle at 100.
However, any settlement price between 1086 and 1090 makes the position $82 as the long leg settles at 100 and the short leg at zero.
So we see that we have a position with better than a 1:4 risk/reward ratio that will play out in just a little over 4 hours’ time.
BY Kathy Garber