Sell February cattle. Sell 121.80 stop. Protective top 122.92. Potential projection 118.50.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart cattle are selling off from a previous resistance area again.
2. The weekly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
3. On the weekly chart a sell would push cattle under the uptrend formed since the May low. That would be negative.
4. The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
5. On the daily chart cattle violated the 100 day ma last week. An attempt to get back over it failed.
6. A sell signal would push cattle under the 150 day ma.
7. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell March mini silver. Sell 31.490 stop. Protective stop 32.255. Potential projection 27.500.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has formed a 1,2,3 top formation. That is negative.
2. The weekly chart has been in a downtrend since the late May high. It appears to be starting a third wave down.
3. The weekly has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
4. The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
5. On the daily chart silver has failed the 20, 100 and 150 day ma. That is very negative.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December mini eurocurrency. Sell 132.690 stop. Protective stop 133.170. Potential projection 130.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart the fx has violated both the 20 and 100 day ma this month.
2. The monthly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
3. The monthly chart is technically in a downtrend and appears to be starting a third wave down.
4. The weekly chart violated the 100 and 150 day ma two weeks ago.
5. The weekly chart appears to be starting another wave down.
6. The weekly chart has a previous sell signal.
7. On the daily chart the fx failed to hold at the 134.000 support. It attempted to get back over it both Friday and today without success.
8. It triggered a buy today. A sell would negate the buy. Normally when a market does so that quickly it follows through in the new direction.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
DEC CORN: It triggered a sell last Wednesday. That sell was negated today and stops were reached. It did rally over 600 but could not hold it. It still has not taken out the low made on Oct. 3 while all the other grains have. Watching closely to short again. Closed 598, up 6 1/4.
Position: Short 592 1/4 (11.23). Exit 605 1/2 (11.29). Loss $717.50 (+comm/fees).
DEC MINI WHEAT: It triggered a sell last Wednesday. It sold off to 572 1/4. It rallied today and formed an outside day. The rally today was stopped by the 600 resistance. Keep stops at 603. Closed 594 1/2, up 19 3/4.
Position: Short 582 1/4 (11.23).
Projection: 500.
JAN MINI BEANS: They rallied to 1138 1/2 today but then sold off. If they follow the pattern of the last rally there should not be much more to this one. Keep stops at 1141 1/2. Closed 1125, up 4.
Position: Short 1181 1/2 (11.17).
Projection: 1100.
JAN MEAL: Switching to January. It rallied to 290.00 today. That is resistance and it then sold off, forming a key reversal top. If it follows the pattern of the previous rally, we may have seen it. It still looks headed for 280.00. On the weekly chart that is good support. Closed 288, down 1.20.
DEC BEAN OIL: It triggered a sell last Wednesday. Stops at 49.18 were reached today. What is interesting is that it closed back over the low area 48.90) formed in early October when it had its first major sell-off. It could rally some more and try to push over 50.00. That is resistance but the real heavy resistance comes in around 50.85 to 50.90. Closed 49.18, up .27.
Position: Short 49.45 (11.23). Exit 49.18 (11.29). Profit $107 (-comm/fees).
MEAT COMMENTS:
FEB HOGS: I tried to short them but they reached the price only during the night session. They then rallied and made a high today at 91.37. I don't think I'll try to short them tomorrow. They formed a key reversal bottom today. I want to watch them a little more. Closed 91.20, up 62.
FEB CATTLE: Switching to Feb. I tried to short them today. They did not reach my price. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 120.57, down .37.
SOFTS:
MAR COTTON: Today it sold off to 88.50 and then made a major key reversal bottom. I checked the long term charts to see if there was anything going on at that level that would cause a reaction like that. I found nothing. I then went back on the daily chart and did find something. It is bouncing off of support formed in late November and early December 2010. We all remember well as it was from that level that cotton started its climb up to 128.00 initially and finally 134.62 for a market top. Of course the first question that comes to one's mind: is cotton telling us that it is going to do the same from the same level again by today's action? I doubt that. The reason being is that the weekly chart is pretty negative. It failed the 150 day ma last week. That is after failing both the 20 and 100 day ma some time ago. In fact any rally has been stopped dead in its tracks by the 20 day ma. Right now if it is going to test the 150 day ma it would reach it at 98.00. Maybe that is what cotton is trying for? Closed 92.75, up 1.40.
JAN ORANGE JUICE: It triggered a buy yesterday from Friday's inside day. It almost negated it today. The motivation seems to be the 180.00 resistance. It is a real stickler and OJ has a real problem with it. That resistance goes back to January of this year. Also, the last time it got over it with really good follow through (it reached 192.55) was in late October. It not only could not hold it, it failed miserably and closed out the week at 170.25. If it fails now, we could be looking at a top in OJ. Closed 176.45, down 2.60.
MAR COFFEE: That was a short lived trade. The stop was reached last Wednesday. Of course, since then it has been selling off! Today's low 227.30. Technically coffee is forming a "descending triangle." Historically that formation does not form a bottom. If that be the case, the odds of coffee breaking out of the triangle to the downside are high. That breakout would occur by taking out 224.00. Since both the 100 and 150 day ma are way above the market on the daily chart, that further increases that probability. It failed the 20 ma again last Friday. It attempted to get over it yesterday but failed again. That is negative too. Closed 227.55, down .25.
Position: Short 235.30 (11.22). Exit 238.60 (11.23). Loss $1292.50 (+comm/fees).
MAR COCOA: I shorted it on Monday. It triggered another sell today from yesterday's outside day. The new low is 22.87. Keep stops at 24.40. Closed 23.20, down .44.
Position: Short 23.71 (11.28).
Projection: 22.00.
MAR SUGAR: Stops were finally reached today with a profit. The high 23.64. It also formed an outside day. On the weekly chart it came very close to the 150 day ma and is holding it so far. That suggests the potential for a rally. How much is a good question since the monthly chart triggered a sell this month. Looking at the weekly chart sugar may try to test the 100 day ma. It failed that indicator two weeks ago. That intersects at approximately 24.30. On the monthly chart if failed the 20 day ma this month. That currently intersects at 24.67. My point being that if it can rally an area between 24.30 to 24.67 might be a potential target. Just watching for now. Closed 23.49, up .37.
Position: Short 25.10 (11.10). Exit 23.53 (11.29). Profit $1703.40 (-comm/fees).
METALS COMMENTS:
MAR COPPER: Switching to March. Just looking at the daily chart copper looks primed for a rally. In fact it appears to be starting a third wave up with a potential to 390.00. That's a 50.00 point move. Of course, it will have to get over the 350.00 barricade and that can change everything. Even the long term charts are encouraging. The monthly formed a key reversal bottom last month from the major 300.00 support. Even though the weekly triggered a sell last week, it held at the 150 day ma and has been holding that indicator so far this week. To suggest a trade requires a risk of over $1750. That's the problem with copper these days. The daily ranges are too great to justify a trade. Just watching. Closed 339.05, up 1.90.
FEB MINI GOLD: Switching to February. First I will finish up with the December trade. I lowered the stop and it was reached last Wednesday. It sold off again but not much. Both yesterday and today it is attempting to get back over the 100 day ma. That would be positive. Just looking at the daily chart, it looks ready for a rally too. Holding 1700.00 has been positive for the market. The long term charts, on the other hand, are not that encouraging and then tend to rule longer term. Just watching. Closed 1718.90, up 4.40.
Position: Short 1703.00 (11.21). Exit 1707.00 (11.23). Loss $187 (+comm/fees).
Projection: 1645.00.
MAR MINI SILVER: Switching to March. First I will finish up with the attempted December trade. I tried to short it on Monday but it rallied instead. I will try to short the March contract tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 31.950, down .292.
ENERGY, CURRENCIES, FINANCIALS:
JAN MINI CRUDE OIL: What a conflicting market. The monthly chart is triggering a buy this month and has succeeded in getting back over the uptrend line formed since the Jan. 2009 low - plus the 20 day ma. Of course it needs to follow through but at least it has done it for the moment. As for the weekly, not quite the case. It formed a key reversal top two weeks ago. On the daily chart the recent sell-off held at 95.00 support. The 150 day ma intersects right under that. But on the negative side, it formed a major key reversal top on Nov. 17. That triggered a sell that is still intact. The daily also formed an inside day today. If it triggers a buy tomorrow it could be starting a new wave up. Or we could be looking at a rally to test the high that fails. Bottom line, crude could go either way. It is pretty much a toss up. Economically there is nothing to support the strength it has exhibited either. Just watching. Closed 99.79, up 1.58.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: It triggered a sell last Wednesday and sold off to 127.780 today. It then rallied to form a key reversal bottom. It also held at the 150 day ma. Move stops from 129.180 down to 128.910. Closed 128.380, up 11.
Position: Sort 129.270 (11.23).
Projection: 125.000.
DEC SWISS FRANC: An inside day yesterday triggered a sell today. It took out the early October low but has not followed through. It is back over the 108.00 support. Support may also be coming from the fact that on the monthly chart the recent sell-off held at the 20 day ma. That intersects at 108.00. Also that is support going back to early this year. Either way, a rally should be an opportunity to short. Just watching. Closed 108.71, up .39.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: It triggered another buy last Wednesday. I paid up a bit. On the weekly chart the dollar rallied up to the 150 day ma. That stopped it so far. It intersects at 79.550. It closed over it last week but is retracing this week. That is a key area to watch. Move stops from 78.150 up to 78.680. Closed 79.151, down .285.
Position: Long 78.920 (11.23).
Projection: 80.000
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: I tried to short it today. It triggered a buy instead but did not follow through. I will try to short it again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 133.300, up .270.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: It triggered a sell last Wednesday. On Friday it reached support and held. I covered. It has rallied since. It will reach heavy resistance at 98.00. Watching closely. Closed 97.02, up .59.
Position: Short 95.89 (11.23). Exit 95.02 (11.25). Profit $815 (-comm/fees).
DEC AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: That was a good "run" in the aussie. You rarely get such follow through. It exceeded my projection of 98.00 and then some. It reached support last Wednesday and held early Friday. I took profit. It has rallied since. Watching closely. Closed 100.01, up 1.39.
Position: Short 100.69 (11.16). Exit 96.89 (11.25). Profit $3745.
DEC E-MINI S&P: I lowered the stop for Monday and it was reached with a profit. It has been rallying but is now facing the 100 day ma at 1209.40. Waiting to short again. Closed
Position: Short 1196.10 (11.21). Exit 1174.00 (11.28). Profit $1050
(-comm/fees).
DEC 10 YR. NOTES: They continue to be stuck in the same range that they started to form in early November. The long term charts still don't give enough to warrant a short. The notes continue to hang around resistance at 131.000 on all the charts but doesn't do anything. Watching closely. Closed 130.150, down .080.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart cattle are selling off from a previous resistance area again.
2. The weekly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
3. On the weekly chart a sell would push cattle under the uptrend formed since the May low. That would be negative.
4. The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
5. On the daily chart cattle violated the 100 day ma last week. An attempt to get back over it failed.
6. A sell signal would push cattle under the 150 day ma.
7. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell March mini silver. Sell 31.490 stop. Protective stop 32.255. Potential projection 27.500.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has formed a 1,2,3 top formation. That is negative.
2. The weekly chart has been in a downtrend since the late May high. It appears to be starting a third wave down.
3. The weekly has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
4. The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
5. On the daily chart silver has failed the 20, 100 and 150 day ma. That is very negative.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December mini eurocurrency. Sell 132.690 stop. Protective stop 133.170. Potential projection 130.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart the fx has violated both the 20 and 100 day ma this month.
2. The monthly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
3. The monthly chart is technically in a downtrend and appears to be starting a third wave down.
4. The weekly chart violated the 100 and 150 day ma two weeks ago.
5. The weekly chart appears to be starting another wave down.
6. The weekly chart has a previous sell signal.
7. On the daily chart the fx failed to hold at the 134.000 support. It attempted to get back over it both Friday and today without success.
8. It triggered a buy today. A sell would negate the buy. Normally when a market does so that quickly it follows through in the new direction.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
- Long December dollar from 78.150 up to 78.690.
- Short December mini yen from 129.180 down to 128.910.
DEC CORN: It triggered a sell last Wednesday. That sell was negated today and stops were reached. It did rally over 600 but could not hold it. It still has not taken out the low made on Oct. 3 while all the other grains have. Watching closely to short again. Closed 598, up 6 1/4.
Position: Short 592 1/4 (11.23). Exit 605 1/2 (11.29). Loss $717.50 (+comm/fees).
DEC MINI WHEAT: It triggered a sell last Wednesday. It sold off to 572 1/4. It rallied today and formed an outside day. The rally today was stopped by the 600 resistance. Keep stops at 603. Closed 594 1/2, up 19 3/4.
Position: Short 582 1/4 (11.23).
Projection: 500.
JAN MINI BEANS: They rallied to 1138 1/2 today but then sold off. If they follow the pattern of the last rally there should not be much more to this one. Keep stops at 1141 1/2. Closed 1125, up 4.
Position: Short 1181 1/2 (11.17).
Projection: 1100.
JAN MEAL: Switching to January. It rallied to 290.00 today. That is resistance and it then sold off, forming a key reversal top. If it follows the pattern of the previous rally, we may have seen it. It still looks headed for 280.00. On the weekly chart that is good support. Closed 288, down 1.20.
DEC BEAN OIL: It triggered a sell last Wednesday. Stops at 49.18 were reached today. What is interesting is that it closed back over the low area 48.90) formed in early October when it had its first major sell-off. It could rally some more and try to push over 50.00. That is resistance but the real heavy resistance comes in around 50.85 to 50.90. Closed 49.18, up .27.
Position: Short 49.45 (11.23). Exit 49.18 (11.29). Profit $107 (-comm/fees).
MEAT COMMENTS:
FEB HOGS: I tried to short them but they reached the price only during the night session. They then rallied and made a high today at 91.37. I don't think I'll try to short them tomorrow. They formed a key reversal bottom today. I want to watch them a little more. Closed 91.20, up 62.
FEB CATTLE: Switching to Feb. I tried to short them today. They did not reach my price. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 120.57, down .37.
SOFTS:
MAR COTTON: Today it sold off to 88.50 and then made a major key reversal bottom. I checked the long term charts to see if there was anything going on at that level that would cause a reaction like that. I found nothing. I then went back on the daily chart and did find something. It is bouncing off of support formed in late November and early December 2010. We all remember well as it was from that level that cotton started its climb up to 128.00 initially and finally 134.62 for a market top. Of course the first question that comes to one's mind: is cotton telling us that it is going to do the same from the same level again by today's action? I doubt that. The reason being is that the weekly chart is pretty negative. It failed the 150 day ma last week. That is after failing both the 20 and 100 day ma some time ago. In fact any rally has been stopped dead in its tracks by the 20 day ma. Right now if it is going to test the 150 day ma it would reach it at 98.00. Maybe that is what cotton is trying for? Closed 92.75, up 1.40.
JAN ORANGE JUICE: It triggered a buy yesterday from Friday's inside day. It almost negated it today. The motivation seems to be the 180.00 resistance. It is a real stickler and OJ has a real problem with it. That resistance goes back to January of this year. Also, the last time it got over it with really good follow through (it reached 192.55) was in late October. It not only could not hold it, it failed miserably and closed out the week at 170.25. If it fails now, we could be looking at a top in OJ. Closed 176.45, down 2.60.
MAR COFFEE: That was a short lived trade. The stop was reached last Wednesday. Of course, since then it has been selling off! Today's low 227.30. Technically coffee is forming a "descending triangle." Historically that formation does not form a bottom. If that be the case, the odds of coffee breaking out of the triangle to the downside are high. That breakout would occur by taking out 224.00. Since both the 100 and 150 day ma are way above the market on the daily chart, that further increases that probability. It failed the 20 ma again last Friday. It attempted to get over it yesterday but failed again. That is negative too. Closed 227.55, down .25.
Position: Short 235.30 (11.22). Exit 238.60 (11.23). Loss $1292.50 (+comm/fees).
MAR COCOA: I shorted it on Monday. It triggered another sell today from yesterday's outside day. The new low is 22.87. Keep stops at 24.40. Closed 23.20, down .44.
Position: Short 23.71 (11.28).
Projection: 22.00.
MAR SUGAR: Stops were finally reached today with a profit. The high 23.64. It also formed an outside day. On the weekly chart it came very close to the 150 day ma and is holding it so far. That suggests the potential for a rally. How much is a good question since the monthly chart triggered a sell this month. Looking at the weekly chart sugar may try to test the 100 day ma. It failed that indicator two weeks ago. That intersects at approximately 24.30. On the monthly chart if failed the 20 day ma this month. That currently intersects at 24.67. My point being that if it can rally an area between 24.30 to 24.67 might be a potential target. Just watching for now. Closed 23.49, up .37.
Position: Short 25.10 (11.10). Exit 23.53 (11.29). Profit $1703.40 (-comm/fees).
METALS COMMENTS:
MAR COPPER: Switching to March. Just looking at the daily chart copper looks primed for a rally. In fact it appears to be starting a third wave up with a potential to 390.00. That's a 50.00 point move. Of course, it will have to get over the 350.00 barricade and that can change everything. Even the long term charts are encouraging. The monthly formed a key reversal bottom last month from the major 300.00 support. Even though the weekly triggered a sell last week, it held at the 150 day ma and has been holding that indicator so far this week. To suggest a trade requires a risk of over $1750. That's the problem with copper these days. The daily ranges are too great to justify a trade. Just watching. Closed 339.05, up 1.90.
FEB MINI GOLD: Switching to February. First I will finish up with the December trade. I lowered the stop and it was reached last Wednesday. It sold off again but not much. Both yesterday and today it is attempting to get back over the 100 day ma. That would be positive. Just looking at the daily chart, it looks ready for a rally too. Holding 1700.00 has been positive for the market. The long term charts, on the other hand, are not that encouraging and then tend to rule longer term. Just watching. Closed 1718.90, up 4.40.
Position: Short 1703.00 (11.21). Exit 1707.00 (11.23). Loss $187 (+comm/fees).
Projection: 1645.00.
MAR MINI SILVER: Switching to March. First I will finish up with the attempted December trade. I tried to short it on Monday but it rallied instead. I will try to short the March contract tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 31.950, down .292.
ENERGY, CURRENCIES, FINANCIALS:
JAN MINI CRUDE OIL: What a conflicting market. The monthly chart is triggering a buy this month and has succeeded in getting back over the uptrend line formed since the Jan. 2009 low - plus the 20 day ma. Of course it needs to follow through but at least it has done it for the moment. As for the weekly, not quite the case. It formed a key reversal top two weeks ago. On the daily chart the recent sell-off held at 95.00 support. The 150 day ma intersects right under that. But on the negative side, it formed a major key reversal top on Nov. 17. That triggered a sell that is still intact. The daily also formed an inside day today. If it triggers a buy tomorrow it could be starting a new wave up. Or we could be looking at a rally to test the high that fails. Bottom line, crude could go either way. It is pretty much a toss up. Economically there is nothing to support the strength it has exhibited either. Just watching. Closed 99.79, up 1.58.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: It triggered a sell last Wednesday and sold off to 127.780 today. It then rallied to form a key reversal bottom. It also held at the 150 day ma. Move stops from 129.180 down to 128.910. Closed 128.380, up 11.
Position: Sort 129.270 (11.23).
Projection: 125.000.
DEC SWISS FRANC: An inside day yesterday triggered a sell today. It took out the early October low but has not followed through. It is back over the 108.00 support. Support may also be coming from the fact that on the monthly chart the recent sell-off held at the 20 day ma. That intersects at 108.00. Also that is support going back to early this year. Either way, a rally should be an opportunity to short. Just watching. Closed 108.71, up .39.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: It triggered another buy last Wednesday. I paid up a bit. On the weekly chart the dollar rallied up to the 150 day ma. That stopped it so far. It intersects at 79.550. It closed over it last week but is retracing this week. That is a key area to watch. Move stops from 78.150 up to 78.680. Closed 79.151, down .285.
Position: Long 78.920 (11.23).
Projection: 80.000
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: I tried to short it today. It triggered a buy instead but did not follow through. I will try to short it again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 133.300, up .270.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: It triggered a sell last Wednesday. On Friday it reached support and held. I covered. It has rallied since. It will reach heavy resistance at 98.00. Watching closely. Closed 97.02, up .59.
Position: Short 95.89 (11.23). Exit 95.02 (11.25). Profit $815 (-comm/fees).
DEC AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: That was a good "run" in the aussie. You rarely get such follow through. It exceeded my projection of 98.00 and then some. It reached support last Wednesday and held early Friday. I took profit. It has rallied since. Watching closely. Closed 100.01, up 1.39.
Position: Short 100.69 (11.16). Exit 96.89 (11.25). Profit $3745.
DEC E-MINI S&P: I lowered the stop for Monday and it was reached with a profit. It has been rallying but is now facing the 100 day ma at 1209.40. Waiting to short again. Closed
Position: Short 1196.10 (11.21). Exit 1174.00 (11.28). Profit $1050
(-comm/fees).
DEC 10 YR. NOTES: They continue to be stuck in the same range that they started to form in early November. The long term charts still don't give enough to warrant a short. The notes continue to hang around resistance at 131.000 on all the charts but doesn't do anything. Watching closely. Closed 130.150, down .080.