Trade Alerts

  Buy 84.77 stop.  Protective stop 83.75.  Potential projection 87.50.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On the monthly chart hogs are holding at the uptrend line formed since the 2009 low.  They reached that line this month.
2.  On the weekly chart hogs are back over the 100 day ma.
3.  On the daily chart the current wave down has exceeded projections suggesting an oversold market.
4.  On the daily chart hogs have held in previous support for three days.  That support was formed in May and produced an extensive rally.
5.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.


Sell February cattle.  Sell 120.55 stop.  Protective stop 121.75.  Potential projection 118.75.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On the monthly chart cattle are in the same resistance that produced a major sell-off in March of this year.
2.  The monthly chart is triggering a sell this month.
3.  The weekly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
4.  On the weekly chart cattle rallied up to the downtrend line and stopped.
5.  On the daily chart cattle are in a downtrend.  They have had three waves down.  The recent rally could be the set up for a fourth wave down.
6.  On the daily chart they violated their main uptrend in November.  An attempt to get back over it failed.
7.  On the daily chart they rallied up to the 150 day ma area today and sold off.
8.  On the daily chart they closed back under the 20 day ma today.
9.  On the daily chart they formed a key reversal top today.

GRAIN COMMENTS:  

MAR CORN: Stops were reached today.  It has finally cleared 600 resistance.  All the work it did under 600 is now support.  That consolidation could bring it up to 640.  The longer term charts also suggest the potential for more rally.  On the monthly chart corn is back over the 20 day ma after violating it earlier this month.  Both the monthly and weekly are also back over 600 support so that could help too.  The longer term scenario has not changed in terms of a down market but it is giving every indication that nearer term there could be more to this rally.  Watching closely.  Closed 607, up 6.
Position:  Short 579 1/2 (12.15).  Exit 606 1/2 (12.20).  Loss mini $325; loss on regular size contract $1567.50) (+comm/fees).

MAR MINI WHEAT:  I tried shorting it last Friday but the price was not reached.  It is back over 600 on the daily chart and has cleared the 20 day ma.  It could test the 625-630 level.  On the monthly chart it has reached some support and that could be helping the market.  The weekly, however, is contradictory.  It triggered a sell last week and is now pushing up against the 150 day ma.  It can get over it but it also has the resistance of market action at the same level going back to September.  Twice before it got over that ma and got to the 630 level on the weekly but then failed.  Between that issue and the 625 potential on the daily chart I don't see much to this rally yet.  Closed 607 3/4, up 8.

JAN MINI BEANS:  Both yesterday and today they could not get over the 1150 resistance area on the daily chart.  They gapped above the 20 day ma yesterday but the follow through has not been as much as seen in corn and wheat.  The weekly, however, negated a sell triggered just last week.  Plus beans are back over the 150 day ma.  The monthly chart isn't showing any change by the rally so far.  Closed 1144 1/2, up 7 1/2.
 
JAN MEAL:  Last time I pointed out that it was the only one in the bean complex with some potential because of the long term support it was sitting in.  It has responded to that support and made a high today at 296.60.  It could easily reach 300.00.  If it can get over the 300.00 resistance area, it could try for 320.00.  That should end the rally as the 20, 100 and 150 day ma currently intersect there on the weekly chart.  Closed 299.20, up 2.70.
 
JAN BEAN OIL:  It continues to try to get over the 20 day ma but so far no such luck.  The long term charts are in complete conflict.  The weekly is back over the 100 day ma.  The monthly is stuck right under the 20 day ma.  It is a toss up at this point.  Lower stops from 50.09 down to 49.85.  Closed 49.75, up .33.
Position:  Short 48.68 (12.14).
Projection:  46.50.

MEAT COMMENTS:
 
FEB HOGS:  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 84.10, down .25.
 
FEB CATTLE:  The rally may be over with.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 120.65, down .85.
 
SOFTS:
 
MAR COTTON:  Last time the daily chart looked a bit oversold.  Since the low on Dec. 14 it has triggered two buys but isn't going anywhere.  The long term chart still suggests 80.00 cotton.  A rally should be an opportunity to short.  Closed 86.80, down .29.
 
MAR ORANGE JUICE:  Switching to March.  I tried to short it more than once but it rallied instead but is right back down in the area where I was attempting to short it.  It closed over the 100 day ma for the first time today.  That is constructive.  Just watching.  Closed 164.50, up 1.20.
 
MAR COFFEE:  I have had a target to 200.00 for some time.  Yesterday it reached 219.00.  It then formed a strong key reversal bottom on the daily chart and triggered a buy signal today.  It is either going to test the breakout to the downside from that descending triangle or it is going to negate it.  That type of formation normally isn't negated so I lean towards this being a test of that breakout which is normal.  The rally could try for 227.00 up to 230.00 .  It will have the 20 day ma to contend with at that level and that has put a lid on this market for some time on the daily chart.  On the monthly chart coffee violated the 20 day ma this month.  That is significant as it is the first time since the entire bull move started. On the weekly chart it reached and held the 150 day ma this week.  That explains the strong reaction on the daily chart.  The weekly also has a sell signal.  Bottom line, unless something dramatic happens, the charts still point to 200.00.  Closed 222.80, up 1.35.

MAR COCOA:  Last time I was watching closely to see if the recent sell-off was a retracement to test the low or the start of another wave down.  With today's strong rally I suspect it is a test of the low (19.83) that will hold.  Why?  The key reversal bottom made on Dec. 12 was extremely aggressive to say the least.  On the daily chart the 20 day ma intersects at 22.26 currently.  I want to see how it reacts at that level.  The last time it got near it on Dec. 14 it started the recent sell-off.  Watching closely to possibly buy.  Closed 21.85, up 115.

MAR SUGAR:  Stops were reached yesterday.  It also rallied over and closed over the 20 day ma today.  That is positive.  Long term the charts are not that encouraging.  The weekly is stuck between the 150 day ma on the low side and the 100 day ma on the high side.  This has been going on for five weeks.  The 100 day ma intersects at 24.34 currently on the weekly.  Plus there is market resistance at 24.00.  The monthly is less encouraging.  It triggered a sell last month and violated the 20 day ma at the same time.  Plus it violated the uptrend formed since the May 2010 low last month.  Bottom line a rally should be an opportunity to short again.  Closed 23.49, up .40.
Position:  Short 22.97 (12.14).  Exit 23.16 (12.19).  Loss $267.80 (+comm/fees).

METALS COMMENTS:

MAR COPPER:  Last time I pointed out that the daily chart had established a downtrend since the Oct. 28 high.  That was further confirmed when last Thursday's low took out the low of Nov. 25.  At the same time copper was attempting to hold 325.00 on the daily.  It has continued to do so and appears to be establishing a rally from this level.  How far will it go?  It is going to run into the 20 day ma up around 343.00.  If it gets over that, it will run into heavy market resistance at 350.00 on the daily.  Just watching.  Closed 336.95, up 6.10.
 
FEB MINI GOLD:  It is back over the 1600.00 key support area on the daily chart. Keep in mind that there is one difference in this sell-off versus the one in September and any prior to that time.  During the entire bull run in 2011 gold always held both the 100 and 150 day ma on any sell-off.  As pointed out before, the sell-off that bottomed in late September violated the 150 day ma but closed over it the same day.  Possibly that was a warning sign because after that gold's attempt at a rally could never match the high made in early September.  This recent sell-off not only violated that ma but it has closed under it since.  This is the sixth day - suggesting to me even further technical damage.  My point being is that the current attempt to rally should be even tougher than what it experienced in late September.  Right now it will run into the 150 day ma at approximately 1670.00.  Since the Nov. 8 high gold has been in a near term downtrend and the recent sell-off was the second wave down.  This current rally could be the setup for a third wave down on the daily.  Long term the technical damage mounts as well.  Watching closely.  Closed 1617.60, up 20.90.
 
MAR MINI SILVER:  It has been in a near term downtrend since the Oct. 28 high.  It appears to have just finished up a second wave down and may try to rally from this level on the daily chart.  It will run into the 20 day ma around 34.00.  It has heavy market resistance around 35.000.  The monthly chart looks bad.  It triggered a sell this month plus it violated the 20 day ma.  On the weekly it held at the 100 day ma and that, I'm sure, is supporting the current rally attempt.  Closed 29.520, up .646.
 
 
ENERGY, CURRENCIES, FINANCIALS:
 
JAN MINI CRUDE OIL:  It triggered a sell last Friday.  It was stopped out today when it rallied back over 95.000 and reached 97.450.  It will reach market resistance starting around 98.000 plus the 20 day ma intersects there on the daily chart.  It could try to test 100.000 again. Near term it has been in a downtrend since the Nov. 17 high.  It has had two waves down.  This could be a rally to set up for a third wave down.  The one thing that could change that is getting back over 100.000.  Closed 97.22, up 3.34.
Position:  Short 93.100 (12.16).  Exit 94.450 (12.20).  Loss $730 (+comm/fees).
 
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN:  Stops were reached on Friday. On Monday it sold off to 126.990 during the night session.  Whatever caused that is beyond me.  The same trading day it came back to close over 128.000 and the 150 day ma on the daily chart and it held that support today.  It is now wedged between the 150 day ma on the downside and the 20 day ma on the upside.  Shall we toss a coin?  Closed 128.650, up .9.
Position:  Short 128.310 (12.14).  Exit 129.120 (12.16).  Loss $561.25 (+comm/fees).

MAR SWISS FRANC:  It rallied up to the 20 day ma average today and stopped.  That has stopped the market since it sold off under it in early November.  It also now has a key reversal bottom.  The monthly does not look good but it is attempting to hold the 100 day ma on the weekly but it has a sell signal too.  Just watching.  Closed 107.60, up .56.
 
MAR DOLLAR INDEX: It is now having a correction comparable to the one it had towards the end of November.  That sell-off equaled 2.070 points.  This one, so far, has been 1.380 points.  So far it is holding 80.000.  It could go lower technically.  The 20 day ma intersects at 79.800 approximately.  Since this move has started the dollar tends to hold that ma during sell-offs.  It will violate it but not very much.  That is the area to watch.  If this sell-off equals the first the dollar could go to 79.410.  Has this changed anything long term?  Not really.  The monthly is triggering a buy this month and continues to trade above the 20 day ma.  On the weekly chart it is backing off from the high end of the bolinger band but nothing more.  It is trading above the 150 day ma and right now that intersects at 79.426.  That is very close to the potential projection on the daily of 79.410.  Needless to say if the dollar gets to this area, it is key to watch what it does then.  Closed 80.273, down .534.
 
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY:   Stops were reached on Friday at a wash.  It continues to hold 130.000 and may try for 132.000 to 132.500.  That would be an area to watch.  Closed 130.840, up .058.
Position:  Short 130.940 (12.13).  Exit 130.860 (12.16).  Loss $5 (+comm/fees).
Projection:  120.000.
 
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR:  I tried to short it twice but the price was reached at night only.  It rallied to the 20 day ma today on the daily and stopped.  It is now trading into a pennant on the daily chart overall, the charts suggest more sell-off. It has a gap down at 95.08. Closed 96.81, up .51.
 
MAR AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR:  It rallied over the 20 day ma on the daily chart yesterday but ran into the 100.00 resistance.  It too is trading into a pennant.  And like the Canadian the charts suggest more sell-off.  It also has a gap down at 96.64. Closed 99.65, up 1.46.

MAR E-MINI S&P:   It is important to note that it closed over the 150 day ma today.  It held for several days at the 1200.00 support.  If it can get follow through it could reach for 1280.00.  It is also important to note that on the daily chart, all three ma intersected in the 1200.00 area.  That is very strong support. The charts suggest further rally.  Closed  1236.00, up 37.00.
 
MAR 10 YR. NOTES:  After breaking out to the upside, they reached 132.070 yesterday.  Today they started to sell off.  They are either testing that breakout and will hold or we should soon know whether it was a false breakout!  Just watching.  Closed 131.190, down .170.