Sell December corn. Sell 592 1/4 stop. Protective stop 605 1/2. Potential projection 500.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a major key reversal top and sell signal.
2. The weekly chart is in a downtrend and appears to be starting a third wave down.
3. The macd is negative on all three charts.
4. On all three charts corn is back under 600.
5. On the daily chart corn failed the 20 day ma over a week ago. An attempt to rally back over it failed. That is negative.
6. The daily chart has a previous sell that is still intact.
7. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December mini wheat. Sell 582 1/4 stop. Protective stop 603. Potential projection 500.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly has two previous sell signals that are still intact.
2. On the monthly chart wheat failed the 20 day ma 3 months ago. An attempt to get back over it last month failed.
3. The weekly is in a downtrend and it appears to be starting a fourth wave down.
4. The weekly chart triggered a sell last week.
5. On the weekly chart wheat is under the 20, 100 and 150 day ma. That is negative.
6. The daily chart has been in a downtrend since the Feb. 2011 high and appears to be starting a fourth wave down.
7. On the daily chart wheat violated the 20 day ma on the Nov. 10. An attempt to rally over it failed.
8. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December bean oil. Sell 49.50 stop. Protective stop 50.79. Potential projection 47.75.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
2. On the monthly chart bean oil violated the 20 day ma this month.
3. On the weekly and daily chart bean oil is back under 50.00 support. That is negative.
4. The macd is negative on all three charts.
5. On the daily chart, bean oil violated the 20 day ma on Thursday. An attempt to rally back over it failed on Friday.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December mini japanese yen. Sell 129.30 stop. Protective stop 130.250. Potential projection 125.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart formed a key reversal top last month - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2. The weekly chart formed a key reversal top two weeks ago that is still intact.
3. On the daily chart the yen rallied up to major resistance and has stopped.
4. On the daily chart that rally was a fibonacci .618 retracement.
5. On the daily chart the yen formed a key reversal top on Friday.
6. The yen triggered a sell today.
7. A sell at 129.30 would push the yen under the 100 day ma.
Buy December dollar index. Buy 78.730 stop. Protective stop 78.150. Potential projection 80.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
2. The weekly chart has been in a uptrend since the April 2011 low. It appears to be starting a third wave up.
3. On the weekly chart the dollar rallied back over the 20 day ma several weeks ago and has held. That is positive.
4. On the daily chart the dollar continues to hold 78.000 support since it rallied back over it on Nov. 15. That is support.
5. The daily chart has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December canadian. Sell 95.89 stop. Protective stop 96.61. Potential projection 93.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart the cd attempted to get back over the 20 day ma this month and failed.
2. On the monthly chart the cd is back under the 100 resistance.
3. On the weekly chart the cd failed to hold the 100 day ma four weeks ago. Two attempts to get back over it failed. That is negative.
4. Both the weekly and daily charts are in a downtrend and appear to be in the process of a third major wave down.
5. The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
DEC CORN: I tried to short it today. My price was not reached. It formed an inside day instead. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 599, up 1 1/4.
DEC MINI WHEAT: I tried to short it today. My price was not reached. It formed an inside day. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 594, up 2 1/2.
JAN MINI BEANS: They formed a small key reversal bottom today. This could produce an interim rally. Keep stops at 1175. Closed 1153, up 5.0.
Position: Short 1181 1/2 (11.17).
Projection: 1100.
DEC MEAL: I covered this am at 291.00. It has persisted in holding 290.00 for several days and today was no exception. That concerned me. Just watching for now but waiting to short again. Closed 292.00, up 2.40.
Position: Short 295.40 (11.17). Exit 291.00 (11.22). Profit $385 (-comm/fees).
Projection: 280.00.
DEC BEAN OIL: It was strong today and rallied to 50.78. My attempt to short did not follow through since it never reached my price. It also formed an inside day today. I'll try again tomorrow to short. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 50.78, up .89.
FEB HOGS: Another new high today at 91.57. The action so far has not been enough to change anything on the long term charts. Both long term charts still have sell signals. Watching closely to short. Closed 91.10, up .10.
DEC CATTLE: In my last Update the daily chart suggested the start of another wave up. That started to follow through when an outside day triggered a sell on Friday. They sold off under both the 100 and 150 day ma - suggesting the start of another sell-off. Well, so far that has not been the case. On Monday they formed a key reversal bottom and closed back over the 150 day ma. Today they closed above the 100 day ma. What stopped the rally today was the 20 day ma. Overall, I would say that the attempted sell-off was aborted and the daily chart still has the potential for another wave up. The weekly chart still has as sell signal and maybe that is what got them to try to sell off? I do not know. The monthly isn't showing much. Just watching this roller coaster ride! Closed 121.45, up 1.47.
MAR COTTON: Cotton finally made a move and broke out of that trading range to the downside. It reached 89.33 today and formed a key reversal bottom. I suspect it will try to test that breakout. That could bring cotton back to the 95.00 area - if not more. What has this done to the long term charts? Some damage to say the least. A buy signal on the monthly was negated and cotton has failed to hold the 100.00 support. The weekly triggered a sell this week and is now trading under the 150 day ma too. That is not good at all. The key will be the potential test of the breakout. If cotton tests it and then starts to sell off again, the next stopping point is, most likely, 80.00. Closed 91.22, up .71.
JAN ORANGE JUICE: The potential 1,2,3 top formation I mentioned last time was negated. OJ made a new high today at 181.00. The next high to test is the Aug. 2 high at 184.20. Any changes in the long term charts? Yes. The monthly is not showing anything new but the weekly chart triggered a buy this week and is back over the 20 day ma. Just watching for now. Closed 179.80, up 1.25.
MAR COFFEE: It triggered a sell this morning and then rallied. Keep stops at 238.60 and let the market work. Closed 236.90, down .10.
Position: Short 235.30 (11.22).
Projection: 210.00.
MAR COCOA: Another new low today at 23.95. It then formed a huge outside day. Long term there isn't anything that is very positive. On the monthly chart the sell-off held at the 100 day ma - that is about it. On the weekly chart cocoa is attempting to hold in support going back to early 2009. It still has a sell signal though. Neither long term chart is giving any bottom indications yet. Is cocoa over sold? Definitely. Just watching. Closed 24.21, up 7.
MAR SUGAR: Another low today at 23.33. The long term negatives mount. The monthly chart is triggering another sell this month - as if it needs it! Sugar also has now violated the 20 day ma on the monthly. The weekly, besides having sell signals all over the place, failed the 100 day ma last week with follow through this week. Considering the pattern on the weeklys with the moving averages, this further suggests it will at least reach the 150 day ma and the 22.00 area. Keep stops at 24.35. Closed 23.44, down .65.
Position: Short 25.10 (11.10).
Projection: 23.00.
DEC COPPER: In the last Update I said it look headed for 325.00. Yesterday's low was 327.20. Today was an inside day on the daily chart. It appears as though it is going to try to hold the 325.00 support area very near term. Normally when a market reaches a previous support (or resistance) the first time it bounces off of it. We could have that happen here but I do not expect it to last. Why: Long term this market is a bear market. It is back to "flirting" again with the 150 day ma on the weekly. Failure to hold it should bring copper down to 300.00. I suspect it is just a matter of time as the weekly triggered another sell this week. Closed 333.30, up .30.
DEC MINI GOLD: It triggered a sell yesterday. It made a low at 1667.10. It formed an inside day today. Move stops from 1728.00 down to 1707.00. Closed 1702.40, up 23.80.
Position: Short 1703.00 (11.21).
Projection: 1645.00.
DEC MINI SILVER: In the last Update I suggested 30.000 as the near term target. It reached 30.650 yesterday and rallied today. It appears it is trying to test the breakout last week when it failed to hold the 20 day ma and also violated the uptrend formed since the late Sept. low. Possible upside area could be to 33.800 to 34.000. Just watching. Closed 32.951, up 1.835.
JAN MINI CRUDE OIL: The outside day formed last Thursday triggered a sell on Friday. The sell followed through to 95.24. The 150 day ma intersects at 94.66. During the sell-off it violated the steep uptrend formed since the early Oct. low. Both yesterday and today's highs pushed up against that trend line but could not get over it. This market is over bought and on what I don't have a clue. Just watching. Closed 98.01, up 1.09.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: I keep trying to short it. The price was reached this morning but before I had placed my orders. I will try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 129.97, down 7.
DEC SWISS FRANC: An inside day triggered a buy today. As usual the rally stopped prior to the 110.00 resistance. The last time it was under that resistance in early October it consolidated for approximately 6 days before it managed to breakout and eventually rally to the 116.00 area. Will it do the same this time?
Just watching. Closed 109.35, up .23.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: Stops were reached on Friday with a profit. It has consolidated since. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 78.435, down .028.
Position: Long 77.370 (11.10). Exit 78.69 (11.18). Profit $1265 (-comm/fees).
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: Stops were reached on Friday with a profit. It has continued to consolidate under 136.00 and not showing any direction currently. Just watching. Closed 135.06, up .10.
Position: Short 137.050 (11.10). Exit 136.610 (11.18). Profit $220 (-comm/fees).
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: I tried to short it Monday. It went through my price during the night session and got away from me. There might be another opportunity. It formed an inside day today. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 96.35, up .10.
DEC AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: It has continued to drift lower. Move stops from 99.69 down to 98.72. Closed 98.08, up 8.
Position: Short 100.69 (11.16).
Projection: 98.00.
DEC E-MINI S&P: I normally do not follow the emini but both the daily and the long term charts suggest the possibility of a strong sell-off that is worth attempting. It triggered a sell yesterday and sold off to 1180.50. Today's low 1179.25. Keep stops at 1230.00. Closed 1182.75, down 8.00.
Position: Short 1196.10 (11.21).
Projection: 1100.00.
DEC 10 YR. NOTES: They have been in a range since Nov. 1 and nothing has changed. The only difference is that the "low end" has shifted up from 129.220 area to the 130.080 area. Just watching. Closed 130.255, up .070.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a major key reversal top and sell signal.
2. The weekly chart is in a downtrend and appears to be starting a third wave down.
3. The macd is negative on all three charts.
4. On all three charts corn is back under 600.
5. On the daily chart corn failed the 20 day ma over a week ago. An attempt to rally back over it failed. That is negative.
6. The daily chart has a previous sell that is still intact.
7. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December mini wheat. Sell 582 1/4 stop. Protective stop 603. Potential projection 500.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly has two previous sell signals that are still intact.
2. On the monthly chart wheat failed the 20 day ma 3 months ago. An attempt to get back over it last month failed.
3. The weekly is in a downtrend and it appears to be starting a fourth wave down.
4. The weekly chart triggered a sell last week.
5. On the weekly chart wheat is under the 20, 100 and 150 day ma. That is negative.
6. The daily chart has been in a downtrend since the Feb. 2011 high and appears to be starting a fourth wave down.
7. On the daily chart wheat violated the 20 day ma on the Nov. 10. An attempt to rally over it failed.
8. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December bean oil. Sell 49.50 stop. Protective stop 50.79. Potential projection 47.75.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
2. On the monthly chart bean oil violated the 20 day ma this month.
3. On the weekly and daily chart bean oil is back under 50.00 support. That is negative.
4. The macd is negative on all three charts.
5. On the daily chart, bean oil violated the 20 day ma on Thursday. An attempt to rally back over it failed on Friday.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December mini japanese yen. Sell 129.30 stop. Protective stop 130.250. Potential projection 125.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart formed a key reversal top last month - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2. The weekly chart formed a key reversal top two weeks ago that is still intact.
3. On the daily chart the yen rallied up to major resistance and has stopped.
4. On the daily chart that rally was a fibonacci .618 retracement.
5. On the daily chart the yen formed a key reversal top on Friday.
6. The yen triggered a sell today.
7. A sell at 129.30 would push the yen under the 100 day ma.
Buy December dollar index. Buy 78.730 stop. Protective stop 78.150. Potential projection 80.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
2. The weekly chart has been in a uptrend since the April 2011 low. It appears to be starting a third wave up.
3. On the weekly chart the dollar rallied back over the 20 day ma several weeks ago and has held. That is positive.
4. On the daily chart the dollar continues to hold 78.000 support since it rallied back over it on Nov. 15. That is support.
5. The daily chart has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December canadian. Sell 95.89 stop. Protective stop 96.61. Potential projection 93.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart the cd attempted to get back over the 20 day ma this month and failed.
2. On the monthly chart the cd is back under the 100 resistance.
3. On the weekly chart the cd failed to hold the 100 day ma four weeks ago. Two attempts to get back over it failed. That is negative.
4. Both the weekly and daily charts are in a downtrend and appear to be in the process of a third major wave down.
5. The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
DEC CORN: I tried to short it today. My price was not reached. It formed an inside day instead. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 599, up 1 1/4.
DEC MINI WHEAT: I tried to short it today. My price was not reached. It formed an inside day. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 594, up 2 1/2.
JAN MINI BEANS: They formed a small key reversal bottom today. This could produce an interim rally. Keep stops at 1175. Closed 1153, up 5.0.
Position: Short 1181 1/2 (11.17).
Projection: 1100.
DEC MEAL: I covered this am at 291.00. It has persisted in holding 290.00 for several days and today was no exception. That concerned me. Just watching for now but waiting to short again. Closed 292.00, up 2.40.
Position: Short 295.40 (11.17). Exit 291.00 (11.22). Profit $385 (-comm/fees).
Projection: 280.00.
DEC BEAN OIL: It was strong today and rallied to 50.78. My attempt to short did not follow through since it never reached my price. It also formed an inside day today. I'll try again tomorrow to short. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 50.78, up .89.
MEAT COMMENTS:
FEB HOGS: Another new high today at 91.57. The action so far has not been enough to change anything on the long term charts. Both long term charts still have sell signals. Watching closely to short. Closed 91.10, up .10.
DEC CATTLE: In my last Update the daily chart suggested the start of another wave up. That started to follow through when an outside day triggered a sell on Friday. They sold off under both the 100 and 150 day ma - suggesting the start of another sell-off. Well, so far that has not been the case. On Monday they formed a key reversal bottom and closed back over the 150 day ma. Today they closed above the 100 day ma. What stopped the rally today was the 20 day ma. Overall, I would say that the attempted sell-off was aborted and the daily chart still has the potential for another wave up. The weekly chart still has as sell signal and maybe that is what got them to try to sell off? I do not know. The monthly isn't showing much. Just watching this roller coaster ride! Closed 121.45, up 1.47.
SOFTS:
MAR COTTON: Cotton finally made a move and broke out of that trading range to the downside. It reached 89.33 today and formed a key reversal bottom. I suspect it will try to test that breakout. That could bring cotton back to the 95.00 area - if not more. What has this done to the long term charts? Some damage to say the least. A buy signal on the monthly was negated and cotton has failed to hold the 100.00 support. The weekly triggered a sell this week and is now trading under the 150 day ma too. That is not good at all. The key will be the potential test of the breakout. If cotton tests it and then starts to sell off again, the next stopping point is, most likely, 80.00. Closed 91.22, up .71.
JAN ORANGE JUICE: The potential 1,2,3 top formation I mentioned last time was negated. OJ made a new high today at 181.00. The next high to test is the Aug. 2 high at 184.20. Any changes in the long term charts? Yes. The monthly is not showing anything new but the weekly chart triggered a buy this week and is back over the 20 day ma. Just watching for now. Closed 179.80, up 1.25.
MAR COFFEE: It triggered a sell this morning and then rallied. Keep stops at 238.60 and let the market work. Closed 236.90, down .10.
Position: Short 235.30 (11.22).
Projection: 210.00.
MAR COCOA: Another new low today at 23.95. It then formed a huge outside day. Long term there isn't anything that is very positive. On the monthly chart the sell-off held at the 100 day ma - that is about it. On the weekly chart cocoa is attempting to hold in support going back to early 2009. It still has a sell signal though. Neither long term chart is giving any bottom indications yet. Is cocoa over sold? Definitely. Just watching. Closed 24.21, up 7.
MAR SUGAR: Another low today at 23.33. The long term negatives mount. The monthly chart is triggering another sell this month - as if it needs it! Sugar also has now violated the 20 day ma on the monthly. The weekly, besides having sell signals all over the place, failed the 100 day ma last week with follow through this week. Considering the pattern on the weeklys with the moving averages, this further suggests it will at least reach the 150 day ma and the 22.00 area. Keep stops at 24.35. Closed 23.44, down .65.
Position: Short 25.10 (11.10).
Projection: 23.00.
METALS COMMENTS:
DEC COPPER: In the last Update I said it look headed for 325.00. Yesterday's low was 327.20. Today was an inside day on the daily chart. It appears as though it is going to try to hold the 325.00 support area very near term. Normally when a market reaches a previous support (or resistance) the first time it bounces off of it. We could have that happen here but I do not expect it to last. Why: Long term this market is a bear market. It is back to "flirting" again with the 150 day ma on the weekly. Failure to hold it should bring copper down to 300.00. I suspect it is just a matter of time as the weekly triggered another sell this week. Closed 333.30, up .30.
DEC MINI GOLD: It triggered a sell yesterday. It made a low at 1667.10. It formed an inside day today. Move stops from 1728.00 down to 1707.00. Closed 1702.40, up 23.80.
Position: Short 1703.00 (11.21).
Projection: 1645.00.
DEC MINI SILVER: In the last Update I suggested 30.000 as the near term target. It reached 30.650 yesterday and rallied today. It appears it is trying to test the breakout last week when it failed to hold the 20 day ma and also violated the uptrend formed since the late Sept. low. Possible upside area could be to 33.800 to 34.000. Just watching. Closed 32.951, up 1.835.
ENERGY, CURRENCIES, INDICES, INT. RATES:
JAN MINI CRUDE OIL: The outside day formed last Thursday triggered a sell on Friday. The sell followed through to 95.24. The 150 day ma intersects at 94.66. During the sell-off it violated the steep uptrend formed since the early Oct. low. Both yesterday and today's highs pushed up against that trend line but could not get over it. This market is over bought and on what I don't have a clue. Just watching. Closed 98.01, up 1.09.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: I keep trying to short it. The price was reached this morning but before I had placed my orders. I will try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 129.97, down 7.
DEC SWISS FRANC: An inside day triggered a buy today. As usual the rally stopped prior to the 110.00 resistance. The last time it was under that resistance in early October it consolidated for approximately 6 days before it managed to breakout and eventually rally to the 116.00 area. Will it do the same this time?
Just watching. Closed 109.35, up .23.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: Stops were reached on Friday with a profit. It has consolidated since. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 78.435, down .028.
Position: Long 77.370 (11.10). Exit 78.69 (11.18). Profit $1265 (-comm/fees).
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: Stops were reached on Friday with a profit. It has continued to consolidate under 136.00 and not showing any direction currently. Just watching. Closed 135.06, up .10.
Position: Short 137.050 (11.10). Exit 136.610 (11.18). Profit $220 (-comm/fees).
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: I tried to short it Monday. It went through my price during the night session and got away from me. There might be another opportunity. It formed an inside day today. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 96.35, up .10.
DEC AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: It has continued to drift lower. Move stops from 99.69 down to 98.72. Closed 98.08, up 8.
Position: Short 100.69 (11.16).
Projection: 98.00.
DEC E-MINI S&P: I normally do not follow the emini but both the daily and the long term charts suggest the possibility of a strong sell-off that is worth attempting. It triggered a sell yesterday and sold off to 1180.50. Today's low 1179.25. Keep stops at 1230.00. Closed 1182.75, down 8.00.
Position: Short 1196.10 (11.21).
Projection: 1100.00.
DEC 10 YR. NOTES: They have been in a range since Nov. 1 and nothing has changed. The only difference is that the "low end" has shifted up from 129.220 area to the 130.080 area. Just watching. Closed 130.255, up .070.