- I do not enter new positions during the night session. I place the orders for day activity only in the morning on globex.
- All trades are good for that day only.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart formed a key reversal top last month - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2. The weekly chart formed a key reversal top two weeks ago that is still intact.
3. On the daily chart the yen rallied up to major resistance and has stopped.
4. On the daily chart that rally was a fibonacci .618 retracement.
5. On the daily chart a sell would push the yen under the 20 day ma.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Short March sugar from 24.85 down to 24.53.
Short December aussie from 101.72 down to 100.85.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
DEC CORN: I have pointed out many times that corn tends to follow beans. It attempts to hold only to catch up with them at some point. That "catch up" started today. On the daily chart it is giving every indication of starting another major wave down. Earlier attempts to get back over the 20 day ma this week failed today. It most likely will test the early October low down at 575. Closed 614 1/2, down 28 1/4.
DEC MINI WHEAT: Its recent attempt at a rally I thought could push it up to 650. That never happened as the 20 day ma stopped that yesterday. It took out the 600 support today and the earlier low made in early October. Very negative. Closed 592 1/2, down 24 1/4.
JAN MINI BEANS: They triggered a sell today and took out the early October low. Today's low 1162. Keep stops at 1203 1/2. Closed 1168 1/4, down 19 1/2.
Position: Short 1181 1/2 (11.17).
Projection: 1100.
DEC MEAL: It triggered a sell today. Today's low 290.20. Keep stops at 305.20. Closed 294.50, down 1.90.
Position: Short 295.40 (11.17).
Projection: 280.00.
DEC BEAN OIL: I had a choice on how to enter bean oil for Wednesday. I decided to try the buy stop only as I did not like the selling pressure seen in the bean complex when the day session started. The buy stop was not reached during the day session and it sold off. Today it sold off and closed back under the 20 day ma. It has attempted for almost two weeks to get over that hurtle. It succeeded on Tuesday but could not hold it. The next key level is 50.00 support. Closed 51.40, down 1.08.
MEAT COMMENTS:
FEB HOGS: Switching to Feb. I tried to short them today. They triggered a buy instead and are back over the 20 and 100 day ma. They are also over the 90.00 resistance. That is now support. Closed 90.42, up 1.50.
DEC CATTLE: In my last Update I suggested that they could be starting another wave up. They had a huge range today. The tested and held the 100 day ma. They also rallied over the 20 day ma but closed back under it. They still look as though they are starting another wave up. But there is contradiction in the various charts so it may still be a toss up as to what they do. Just watching. Closed 121.00, down 1.05.
SOFTS:
MAR COTTON: Switching to March. Last time I said there was nothing new. This time there is nothing new!!! Still in the same trading range. It will break out one way or the other and that yet is the unknown. Just watching. Closed 96.48, down 4.00.
JAN ORANGE JUICE: Last time I mentioned that the long term charts suggest more sell-off. The daily chart seems to have other ideas. Or does it? It continues to hold the 100 and 150 day ma and rallied today over 4.00 points. But is this a set up to form a 1, 2, 3 top formation to the rally that peaked on Oct 26? Just watching. Closed 171.85, up 3.00.
MAR COFFEE: Switching to March. The buy triggered and pointed out in my last Update was negated today. Coffee formed an inside day yesterday and that produced a sell. It also sold off and closed under the 20 day ma. I see more follow through to 230.00 at least but I still see 200.00. The reason being it is the only soft that has yet to have a major sell-off. Closed 236.10, down 2.95.
MAR COCOA: Switching to March. It reached 25.00 support today. It broke out to the downside from consolidation above 26.00. I suspect it might try to go back and test that breakout. Just watching. Closed 25.05, down .31.
MAR SUGAR: The low in September was 24.01. Today's low 24.00. It has failed the 20 day ma on the monthly with this current sell-off. On the weekly chart it failed the 100 day ma. Both negative develops. I would not be surprised if sugar eventually reached 20.00. Move stops from 24.85 down to 24.53. Closed 24.04, down .48.
Position: Short 25.10 (11.10).
Projection: 23.00.
METALS COMMENTS:
DEC COPPER: The attempt to rally failed and the sell signal mentioned last time prevailed. It violated the 20 day ma today and just looking at the daily chart it looks headed for 325.00 near term now. An outside day yesterday triggered another sell today. Closed 338.25, down 10.20.
DEC MINI GOLD: Its failure to get back over the 1800.00 resistance is negative. The monthly chart has a key reversal top. On the weekly chart gold is starting to go under the 20 day ma. The macd is negative on all three charts. On the daily it violated the 20 day ma. It is getting close to the 100 day ma. Fundamentally gold was being sold to buy U.S. Dollars most likely because of the European mess that is getting close to imploding. Closed 1720.20, down 54.10.
DEC MINI SILVER: Almost on the opening bell today it violated the 20 day ma that it had held on all corrections. It was straight down to 31.040. Gold hiccups and silver has a seizure. The 30.000 level is the most probable near term landing for silver. Closed 31.497, down 2.325.
ENERGY, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
JAN MINI CRUDE OIL: I tried to short it yesterday. It rallied instead. Today it formed a major key reversal top and outside day. It is also back under 100.00. Over bought it is but the risk required for a suggested short is too much. Closed 98.93, down 3.67.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: I tried to short the yen. It never even got near my price. I will try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 103.03, down 2.
DEC SWISS FRANC: It continues to hold the low (107.49) formed in October. Today's low 108.30. Nothing new. Just watching. Closed 108.73, down .37.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: Another new high today at 78.690. Keep stops at 77.990. Closed 78.489, up .283.
Position: Long 77.370 (11.10).
Projection: 80.000.
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: A new low (134.200) today but not by much. Keep stops at 135.610. Closed 134.64, down 47.
Position: Short 137.050 (11.10).
Projection: 132.000.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: It struggled to hold 98.00 for some time but failed. It continues to appear to be starting a new wave down. It still suggests 96.00. Closed 97.19, down .81.
DEC AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: It triggered a sell on Wednesday and failed to hold the 100.00 support. Today's low 99.37. Move stops from 101.92 down to 100.85.
Position: Short 100.69 (11.16).
Projection: 98.00.
DEC 10 YR. NOTES: They continue to be stuck in a narrow range between 129.210 up to 131.000 approximately. Nothing new to report. Closed 130.265, up .105.