Heading into the 1:00 p.m. Fomc minutes release has these index futures consolidating as they decide to make a next move. The bonds continue to be firm and look for higher ground. I still like the idea if they go up, the index futures just may look for new lows. However, a report with the magnitude of what the minutes can bring could diverge from the movement between these futures. Time will tell.
The bonds did keep in step and found new highs at 155.19, just missing a resistance level of 155.20. If followed with a move back to its opening tic, spot on the 155.08 price leading a consolidated effort until retesting its high an hour and a half later, 11:30 a.m. spot on 2nd attempt. Usually this signals an exhausted move, but the fact if found a last low at 155.11 kept it in check by staying above its opening tic, a line in the sand moving forward. It drifts once again making up its mind on a next move. Still thinking it has potential to take out last weeks high of 156.03 with todays upside # price, 156.11, as a target.
A move under its opening print would need to take out the 155.00 price to confirm a directional trend taking on new lows with a target of 154.06.
The S&P did find its pivotal price (1990.50) to its liking first time asking when making a high at 1991.75. A move to a low of 1982.75 did rebound to make new highs at 1992.50, found a higher low at 1986.75, on its way to find a current high at 1995.50. Bingo with support turning into resistance as if found yesterdays pit low of 1996.00 / mini low 1995.25 a level that stopped this future in its tracks. Sideways action is deciding on its next move. I would need to see an offer of the 1982.75 price to start the ball rolling with an attitude to take them to new lows and a chance at the pre-market low of 1971.25. New highs still has the upside # price on its mind, 1999.00, but the psychological idea of finding the long value price from yesterday, 2001.80, is ever present.
The Nasdaq found new highs at 4451.50, followed with a low at 4431.00, new highs at 4456.50, a higher low print 4438.00, on its way to a current high of 4460.25. It took out its previous days low of 4457.25 by 3 handles, but the fact in a 15 minute period a retest held that same high has implications of failing. A low at 4436.25 off that high returned to the 4452.25 price. Watch out if it finds an offer of the 4431.00 price, followed by a move under the week low 4429.75. It hints to new lows with chances of finding earlier levels mentioned at 4379.00 / 4362.50.
Two things to think of. Oil keeps melting away and if this format stays at hand, there is danger of further erosion at hand. The treasuries if they keep firm could be the reason they break the camels back moving into the 2nd half of today.
One last thought. One must remember the minutes offer a fundamental value which in turn can skew the technical side of thinking. Patience with a stalk and pounce approach is some solid advice.