Hi, this is Tim Hannagan; it is February 4, 2016. Export sales for soybeans came in at minus 43 thousand metric tons, a marketing year low. China, who buys over 90% of our soybeans, was absent from the purchasing sheets, instead showing up canceling 395 thousand last week and another 374 reduction on the report. Now that Brazil’s harvest is underway Brazil will continue to underbid US posted prices.
Brazil traditionally sells the first three quarters of their harvest while storing the last 25% for higher prices later. It is not overly bearish because it is just one week. Without any business talked about with China this week traders will assume next week’s numbers will be minus as well. Though the export news is bearish it would not take much to have funds cover more shorts in the market, as export sales are at 88% of the projected USDA forecast with 6 months left to go in the marketing year.
This leaves room for future crop reports to raise export projections and lower ending stocks unless of course we put together a string of weeks of negative sales. Sales of 167 thousand are needed weekly to meet the USDA projection for the year. Resistance on March beans is 8.85 then 9.10 support is 8.66 then 8.50. March corn support lies at 3.64 then 3.58 with resistance at 3.75, 3.80 then 3.93. Support on March wheat is 4.68 then 4.60 resistance is 4.86 then 5.00.