Thursday’s export sales report for beans came in at 2.087 million metric tons vs. 2.030 last week and over 2 million metric tons in the last three out of five weekly reports. Of this week’s total, China was in for 1.410 of the total. Total exports last week were 2.806 showing that not just China is buying U.S. soybeans, but the rest of the world is as well. This had little impact on beans; however, as beans closed lower on the day. Non-commercials funds came in long 18,000 contracts and index funds long 121,000 contracts.
This left room for a lot of profit taking after the last report rallying the market to 9.24 basis January soybeans. Today’s low of 8.75 equals the low prior the last report, a close under and next 8.60. Any move close to 8.60 should be bought as all the bearish news leading into the report will be priced in. Bullish news prior the report will come from an impending truck strike in Brazil November 9th. To date, we have exported 89 million bushels less wheat and 66 million bushels less corn, but have exported 48 million bushels more beans year on year. With China purchasing at record levels and taking everything they buy, now there is no room for a lengthy truck strike. The last USDA report was surprisingly bullish; this should lead to a lot of short covering from profitable shorts in the market even though recently harvested beans came from the high yielding states of Iowa and Nebraska.
Support for January beans is 8.75 then 8.60, resistance is 8.94 and 9.04. December wheat support is 4.65 with resistance at 5.35 then 6.25. December corn support lies at 3.75 then 3.70 with resistance 3.84 and 4.02.