Export sales for corn came in at 1.172 million metric tons up 7% from the week prior and 37% over the four week average. Big U.S. corn buyers were present with Japan buying 306 thousand and Mexico 339 thousand metric tons. That is the second consecutive week of over 1 million metric tons despite old crop carryover being over double the year prior. This week’s number is neutral at best as the market won’t rally over it but it won’t break either. This leaves room for funds holding big short positions fat with profits to begin to cover.
Non reportable funds are short 157,000 contracts with trend following funds short a record 247,000. With the USDA planted acreage report only 14 days away and thinking that farmers will plant more beans and less corn, coupled with an El Nino weather pattern bringing flooding to the southern delta where 15% of our corn is grown, there may be incentive for these funds to cover short positions. They may not want to be long the market but certainly not as short considering those two events.
Support for May corn lies at 3.55, a close under sets up 3.45. Resistance is first at 3.62, and with a close over 3.73 is next followed by 3.78. Should resistance hold be an aggressive buyer off support or on a close over any aforementioned resistance levels. May beans find support at 8.62 with first resistance at 8.90 then 9.00 followed by 9.20. May wheat support is 4.62 then 4.50 resistance is 4.76, 4.94, and 5.10.