Are there still any bears left in the market? If so, we will give them a break and time to reflect on the decisions they've made in the past few weeks. We've warned many times about not going up against the Federal Reserve. We've said bears shouldn't seek logic or sense out there. Trading these days is crazy and we just have to adjust to the fact that the conventional approach to markets and macroeconomics don't apply.
In today’s analysis, we will focus on the euro, where traders have been enjoying a flawless upswing.
On the weekly chart the EUR/JPY created a double-bottom formation, which looks very promising for long-term buyers. One long-term down trendline was already broken and currently buyers are aiming for a second one. Before they get there, they’ll have to break the horizontal resistance at the 38.2% Fib retracement level, which has been extremely powerful so far. Powerful enough to initiate a bearish reversal, or at least a small correction.
Next is the EUR/CAD, where the price is trading inside a long-term flag formation. It seems like that flag is coming to an end as the price doesn’t want to go lower than C$1.505, which is currently a crucial support level. As long as the price stays above this area, sentiment will remain positive and traders can think about a greater risk-to-reward ratio.
We’ll end this with the EUR/CHF, which has enjoyed three great weeks. The price broke two crucial down-trendlines and is currently aiming at a strong horizontal resistance, created by two Fibonacci levels: 23.6% and 38.2%. Furthermore, this area is strengthened by the 2019 lows, so it seems like a great occasion to take profit, for some at least.