Currency risk, foreign exchange volatility and their impact on emerging markets, frontier markets and mature markets are hot topics at the 7th annual Inside ETFs conference, hosted by ETF.com (formerly Index Universe) in Hollywood, Florida. This assemblage of approximately 1,500 people that includes virtually every ETF provider, servicer, market maker and support-system company is abuzz with those and many other discussion topics. The key topic for us is contagion risk arising from foreign currency markets and the development of more mature markets.
There are two points of view on the subject of currency contagion risk. Some here argue that there is no such risk and that events like those playing out in Argentina or Thailand are “one-off” items. Others who are older (I am one of them) remember the last 50 years of adverse events, outright shocks, and … contagion. The bottom line is that contagion is not seen as real until it arrives. Warnings about the risk are available, and we pay attention to them. Shocks, on the other hand, cannot be predicted. Only when they occur can evasive action be taken as the sequence of events unfolds.
We recall currency contagion events, including trouble with the Mexican peso and the Thai baht. We vividly recall the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund inflows stemming from the collapse of the Russian ruble. We even recall the run on gold when President Nixon closed the gold window and devalued the dollar. Many of the participants at this conference were not alive when that happened.
Cumberland has increased its cash position in its US ETFs. We are concerned about currency volatility. We note that currency volatilities rise when the global platform of interest rates is held near zero for a long time. The outcome of central bank policy making at the zero bound is to increase the risk shipped to the foreign exchange markets. The reason is that interest rates can no longer be used effectively in the adjustment process, or for the buffering of change in those foreign exchange markets.
If one cannot arbitrage forward currency exchange rates with interest rates, volatility grows, and the risk profiles tied to foreign exchange markets only increase. That has been the impact of the last five years, when short-term interest rates have been held near zero by the major central banks of the world.
We are maintaining a high cash reserve. We want to let this foreign exchange currency risk run its course before we again become fully invested.
BY David R. Kotok