The Pound Retreats Against U.S. Dollar; Could Fall To 1.2500

Published 04/08/2022, 04:21 AM

The US dollar works its way up against European currencies, including the British Pound. After a corrective bounce from Mar. 15 to the 23, GBP/USD has returned to the downslide. Most worryingly, this decline is coming very evenly. It is no longer a speculative flight of capital to safe havens in response to frightening news.
GBP/USD daily chart.

The flat downtrend with a succession of lower local highs indicates a capital flight out of European countries. Britain is much less dependent on energy supplies from Russia but still bears an evident loss of economic growth due to the current situation. In addition, as the money hub for Europe, the UK is taking a hit due to worsening business sentiment and tighter financial conditions.

EUR/GBP weekly chart.

The Bank of England's more determined move to raise the bank rate and cut QE is fueling the Pound's rise against the euro. The EUR/GBP pair is close to 0.8300, near the lower bound of an almost 6-year trading range. And so far, it isn't easy to find a reason to reverse the trend.

In the meantime, the Pound still has too little strength to withstand a rising Dollar, whose economy is much less affected by the war in Europe.

The inability of GBP/USD to develop a rebound above 1.3160 (61.8% of covid amplitude) sets up for further drawdown with near-term support near 1.2830 (50% of the rally) with the potential for a more profound decline at 1.2500 in the next few weeks.

GBP/USD weekly chart.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.