The Neutral Euro

The Euro is trading in a neutral territory now; between 1.2450 and 1.2550.
However, there are a lot of indicators supporting the bearish condition, such as the political situation in Europe, the ECB’s announcements in the last few months and the sanctions against Russia which affected the entire European region, including Germany. And for the first quarter of 2015 the above mentioned will remain in the headlines.

Here are the major Resistance (R) & Support (S) levels of the EUR/USD:

S2 S1 Pivot Point R1 R2
1.2309 1.2380 1.2450 1.2545 1.2640


As for today’s figures, starting from Switzerland, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is scheduled for release; measuring the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of the consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of the overall inflation.

Ø Forecast: 0.2%
Ø Previous: -0.1%

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative for the CHF.

Moving to the UK, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders announcement will be released; measuring the economic expectations of the manufacturing executives in the U.K. It is a leading indicator of business conditions. A level above zero indicates that the order volume is expected to increase; while a level below zero indicates that the order volume is expected to decrease. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 550 manufacturers.
Ø Forecast: 3
Ø Previous: 3

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative for the GBP.

As for the U.S., the Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released; rating the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, while a level below 0.0 indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.
Ø Forecast: 12.52
Ø Previous: 10.16

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative for the USD.

Also, the Industrial Production announcement is scheduled for release; measuring the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of the output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

Ø Forecast: 0.7%
Ø Previous: -0.1%

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/ bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/ bearish for the USD.

From the U.S. too, the Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions announcement will be released; measuring the difference in value between the foreign long-term securities purchased by the U.S. citizens and the U.S. long-term securities purchased by the foreign investors. The Demand for both domestic securities and currency are directly linked because foreigners have to buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation's securities.

Ø Forecast: 72.8 B
Ø Previous: 164.3 B

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative for the USD.

We wish you luck in your trading activities.

Disclaimer The prices and news mentioned in this outlook are absolutely no guarantee of future market performance. Financial markets can move in either direction causing profits to be made or complete losses to be incurred by the trader. Each trader must decide for themselves what their risk appetite is and ensure that correct risk management procedures are in place before placing any trades. Engaging in CFDs or Spot FX carries a high risk to your capital. You should not engage in this form of investing unless you understand the nature of the Transaction you are entering into and the true extent of your exposure to the risk of loss. Your profit and loss will vary according to the extent of the fluctuations in the price of the underlying markets on which the trade is based.