The markets rev as Draghi's speech draws nearer

A sense of unease continues to linger in the financial markets as the flash PMI release from China has fortified the doubts which most market participants had about the health of the Chinese economy. These doubts translated to the Asian equities closing in the red whilst commodities have posted gains for the day pre New York session. The USD maintains its state of heightened sensitivity as the negative data from China has resulted in the Dollar Index perching to the upside before declining back below the intraday support of 96.25 as of writing. There exists a possibility that the New York session will succumb to a wave of jitters from the soft China data which may result in further weakness within the USD.

In the European arena, ECB Draghi’s speech this afternoon will be observed with much care by market participants. Global events may be discussed in addition to how the ECB aims to hit its long-term inflation target of 2% in such unstable market conditions. The EUR experienced a selloff in yesterday’s trading session as investor concerns heightened about the possibility of QE by the ECB following a Eurozone inflation figure which was revised lower at 0.1% in August. The unexpected weakness in inflation from August is one of the issues which may stimulate a potential QE in the near future. If such a move is hinted at this afternoon, then the EUR may experience another sharp decline across the board before the end of the trading day.

Within the commodity division, the NZD continues to be exposed to more losses. Interest rates have been cut on three occasions this year by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), with the additional warning that more potential cuts may materialize in the future. The declining dairy prices have continued to punish the New Zealand economy exposing it to further downside pressure. Even though the weak NZD may provide some support to the export competitiveness, and further encourage local consumers to purchase products locally, this single currency remains fundamentally bearish. The NZDUSD has already declined for an extended period of time and may keep declining once a technical daily breach below the 0.6250 support transpires.

EURTRY
The EURTRY trades within delicate regions. This pair remains bullish on the daily timeframe as long as prices can keep above the 3.3500 support. A daily close below the 3.3500 support invalidates this daily bullish outlook and opens a path to the next relevant support at 3.2550.

GBPAUD
The GBPAUD is currently in the process of turning bearish on the daily timeframe. There exists a wedge formation with support based at 2.1400. A breach below the 2.1400 support may open a path to the next relevant support at 2.1100. Prices are marginally below the 20 daily SMA but the MACD still trades to the upside.

NZDCAD
The NZDCAD remains bearish on the daily timeframe as long as prices can keep below the 0.8450 resistance. Prices are below the daily 20 SMA and the MACD trades to the downside. A breach below the 0.8300 support may open a path to the next relevant support at 0.81000.