Yesterday’s reports came out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not taking calls from Joe Biden. This talk came after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant canceled a trip to Washington after it seemed that Democrat Nominee Kamala Harris seemed to throw Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu under the bus in her now infamous 60-minute interview.
Bill Whitaker asked why it seemed like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasn’t listening to the United States, depending on what answer CBS decided to show. Harris when asked about Netanyahu said, “”I think, with all due respect, the better question is, do we have an important alliance between the American people and the Israeli people,” Harris said. “And the answer to that question is yes.”
Yet after some white House pressure, it seems like Joe Biden will speak to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today including talks about Israeli plans to attack Iran and the real possibility that Israel will strike Iranian oil infrastructure. This comes as Israel continues to have enormous military success in Lebanon against Hezbollah. So much success that Hezbollah reportedly wanted a cease-fire after it lost its latest leader. Good luck with that.
Even as an overbought oil market that saw bullish options bets hit a two-year high bought into the ceasefire story hook line and sinker, the reality is that it is unlikely to happen. With Israel’s military success instead of a ceasefire, perhaps a full and unconditional surrender by Hezbollah.
Fox News reported that Israel confirmed on Tuesday that Hezbollah’s intended replacement of its former leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed late last month, has also been “taken out.” “Today, Hezbollah is weaker than it has been for many, many years,” Netanyahu said in a message tailored directly to the “people of Lebanon.” “We’ve degraded Hezbollah’s capabilities, we took out thousands of terrorists, including [former Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah himself, and Nasrallah’s replacement, and the replacement of his replacement.”
Oh yes, and we declare a ceasefire so Hezbollah can get back to its plans to carry out terror. Oops, I made up that last part. In fact, oil came back on reports that Isreal Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indeed plans to hit Iranian energy infrastructure.
Today’s call between Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may determine the scope of that attack. Israel realizes that they must cut off Iran’s ability to spread terror in the world. That means cutting off their oil revenue. Gee, I sure wish there was a way to do that years ago before all these lives have been lost and blood has been shed.
Oil prices saw some relief from the fact that Hurricane Milton had only shut down one offshore oil platform. Yet that is not any relief to the people in Florida who face what could be one of the most catastrophic storms in recent history and they still need our prayers.
Fox Weather reports that Hurricane Milton threatens to be a historically deep and dangerous storm surge to a large swath of Florida’s west coast along with wind gusts well over 100 mph during the next 36 hours. Fox Weather says that Milton regained Category 5 strength Tuesday evening, a day after becoming among the strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin.
As Florida residents leave and gas stations run dry, the Democratic nominee is upset she can’t get Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on the phone. Harris went on a diatribe accusing Governor DeSantis of playing politics saying that, “Moments of crisis, if nothing else, should really be the moment that anyone who calls themselves a leader says they’re going to put politics aside and put the people first.
People are in desperate need of support right now and playing political games with this moment in these crisis situations, these are the height of emergency situations, it’s just utterly irresponsible and it is selfish.” What is irresponsible and selfish is trying to call the Governor for political purposes because her poll numbers are falling on her failed response to Hurricane Helene and the fact that this is the first time she ever called DeSantis ahead during or after a hurricane in the almost 4 years she’s been in office.
De Santis told Fox News that, “I’ve worked on these hurricanes under both President Trump and President Biden. Neither of them ever tried to politicize it. She [Harris] has never called on any of the storms we’ve had since she’s been vice president until apparently now,” DeSantis told “Fox & Friends” Tuesday morning following reports of the vice president’s criticism.
“Why, all of a sudden, is she trying to parachute in and inject herself when she’s never shown any interest in the past? We know it’s because of politics, we know it’s because of her campaign.” “Harris is not even in the chain of command. She has no role in this,” DeSantis added. “The idea that I should be, like, worrying about her when I’m focused on the task at hand is just quite frankly absurd.”
But Biden is getting through to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and said he is doing a great job cleaning up the debris from Hurricane Helene so they can better withstand the fury of Hurricane Milton. Biden said “The governor of Florida has been cooperative. He said he’s gotten all that he needs. I talked to him again yesterday, and I said – no – you’re doing a great job, it’s all being done well, and we thank you for it,” Biden said at a press conference from the White House Tuesday. “There was a rough start in some places, but every governor, every governor – from Florida to North Carolina – has been fully cooperative and supportive.” As reported by Fox News.
Yet Biden as we said does have some phone call issues not only with Israel but the UAE and Saudi Arabia. In 2022 Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the U.A.E.’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan both declined U.S. requests to speak to Biden about raising oil output.
Maybe the Crown Prince ignored his call because Biden had earlier refused to talk to him and may have taken exception to Biden’s boost to make Saudi Arabia a pariah state and promised to put him on the dust heap of history. Biden did not want to deal with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince because of his alleged ordering of the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and US citizen in the consulate of Saudi Arabia in Istanbul.
Yet Biden did see fit to reach out to the Iranian regime that Kamala Harris says is the US biggest threat and has American blood on their hands. She was in the room as the US unfroze billions of dollars in Iranian assets and refused to enforce sanctions that allowed Iranian oil exports to surge.
The risk of attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure keeps this market in a mode with real upside price risks. This comes as the market ignores a massive 10.9-million-barrel oil crude build as reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API). That build was viewed as part catch-up to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report and party to the impact of Hurricane Helene. The API also showed a 1.359-million-barrel increase from the Cushing, OK delivery point.
The API a draw of 557,000 barrels of gasoline and a big draw of 2.59 million barrels on distillates. The drawdown in distillates came as farmers burned diesel to bring crops in and to feed America and the rest of the world. A great use for those fossil fuels.
More volatility today. Day traders rejoice! Position traders buy breaks.
The EIA also came out with its outlook for Natural Gas where low prices have created record demand for natural gas-generated electricity. The EIA said that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price rose by 15% to $2.28 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in September. They expect the Henry Hub price to continue rising to around $2.80/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2024 and to further increase to around $3.10/MMBtu on average in 2025 as liquefied natural gas exports, a component of total natural gas demand, increase with the addition of capacity.
Hot summer temperatures increased U.S. electricity demand across all sectors in 2024. We expect residential electricity sales to increase by 3% in 2024 and by another 1% in 2025. Similarly, electricity demand in the commercial and industrial sectors is expected to grow, increasing by a combined 2% in both 2024 and 2025.