The Energy Report: Russia On The Move

Published 02/22/2022, 01:26 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
Vladimir Putin made his move and now it is up to Joe Biden. Oil prices soared after Russia moved into separatists’ parts of the Ukraine, raising the odds of an all-out war. A war that could have a major impact on the delicate balance between supply and demand in a global oil market that is much tighter than it should have ever been allowed to be. In response, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he would halt certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline saying that ‘it can’t happen now.” Now, the market must wait to find out if Russia will respond by reducing European supply. Brent crude hit $99.00, the highest level since 2006 as a surge of buying came in.
 
Bloomberg News reported that Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, unanimously ratified the Kremlin’s treaties recognizing two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine. Putin had already ordered his forces into the region. Yet, there is still debate as to whether this is a real invasion or just a minor incursion that Biden seemed to suggest and green light it. Later, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken seemed to suggest that any incursion would bring down the full wrath of U.S. government but yet now that it’s happened, we have to wait and see if the Biden administration will back that up. Reports from the UK said that there has not been a full-scale invasion and they are going to be working on coordinated sanctions on Russia. What those sanctions are we don’t know at this point.
 

Yet, the fall out was not just in oil. The stock market broke hard but is coming back on talk that the Fed may have to slow down on interest rate increases because of a potential oil shock to the economy. Grain markets are also soaring as the Ukraine is a major grain exporter.

Reports are also coming out that the Russian representative to the Iranian nuclear talks tweeted that the talks are nearing the finish line. Are they talking about the Iranian talks or are they talking about the Ukraine invasion?

Because of what is going on between Russia, Ukraine and the West, it is ridiculous to consider that U.S. is going to continue with the Iranian nuclear talks. The Biden administration continues to empower our foes with their anti-fossil fuel policies and war against U.S. oil and gas and his policies have only enriched Russia and Iran. Now, Biden wants to give Iran more money and the ability to continue to wreak havoc in the region.

Iran is just crazy. What is it with Biden that he wants to appease these dangerous leaders in the world. It is the weakness that Biden has shown that has allowed Putin to make his move. It’s just unbelievable all the damage that Biden has done since he’s been elected, not only to our economy but to the stability of world peace.

U.S. oil supply should also see declines despite Biden's SPR Release. Private sources show it fell by 1.657 million barrels in the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point. We should see crude supply fall 3.0 million barrels. We should see gasoline supply fall by 1.5 million barrels. Distillate down 2.0 runs up 0.5.

Natural gas also popped on cold weather and the Russia-Ukraine situation. The U.S. can only export so much LNG.

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