While some in the marketplace are concerned about weak demand, a move by Saudi Arabia to raise their price for oil seems to suggest that they’re not that concerned. Consider the fact that the well prices according to technical analysis, West TX intermediate crude prices are close to the 100-day moving average and now are the most oversold on a 14-day relative strength index basis since they bottomed out last December.
Now with the Gaza ceasefire talks falling apart, as was expected, the market is starting to realize that the geopolitical risk factors have not gone away. Reports say that Israel is warning Palestinians to evacuate parts of Rafah as they prepare to move to remove Hamas from the area. Reports say Israel struck an area overnight from which Kerem Shalom was attacked. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it very clear that just ending the war in Gaza would keep Hamas in power and that would pose a threat that Israel cannot accept. They would be willing to pause fighting in Gaza in order to secure the release of hostages but obviously, it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.
This comes as Saudi Arabia and OPEC plus used their market might and sent a message signaling that they’re not only going to continue their voluntary production cuts into the end of the year but potentially in the New Year. On top of that, the market pricing and the potential for even deeper cuts as Iraq has vowed to make compensation cuts this year of 602,000 barrels a day, we also have a commitment from Kazakstan vowing to reduce production by an additional 389,000 barrels a day.
Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia raised the price of its flagship crude to Asia for a third consecutive month, as the kingdom tries to tighten the oil market to prevent a global surplus. Saudi Aramco raised the June official selling price of Arab Light crude for customers in Asia by 90 cents to $2.90 a barrel above the regional Oman-Dubai benchmark, according to a price list seen by Bloomberg. It compares with an increase of 60 cents forecast in a Bloomberg survey of six refiners. Prices for other lighter and heavier varieties were also increased from May.
Gasoline demand in recent weeks has been poor and even though there are reports that it’s improving. In the big picture, Woods MacKenzie is predicting that gasoline demand will be weak because of the greater adoption of electronic vehicles. There are reports that quote penetration of electronic vehicles has been increasing in the US and China this year. Chinese gasoline demand will only grow by 10,000 barrels a day due to a higher electronic vehicle uptake.
Yet despite spite recent mixed signals about US oil demand, the reality is that we’re seeing the science of supplies are going to tighten. We did see a big drop in rig counts for both oil and natural gas last week.
The weekly count for oil dropped to 499 from 506, while gas lost three rigs week to week at 102, Baker Hughes said Friday. The miscellaneous tally grew by two to four. A year earlier, the US had 588 oils, 157 gas and three miscellaneous rigs in operation, the company’s data showed.
We see signs that demand should pick up as this weather starts to kick into more summer-like temperatures. I think that last week was a great buying opportunity.
Reports that the Freeport LNG export terminal was taking more inflows last week and they hope that power generation for artificial intelligence and Bitcoin mining and data centers will create an explosion in demand for natural gas next year. It is giving the markets some hope in the face of pretty overwhelming supplies. The market is trying to bottom, and it still might be a good time to buy some long-term calls.