Israel is still locked and loaded. There have been reports that Israel will launch its attack ahead of the US Presidential election. It has been reported that Israel allegedly promised the Biden Administration that they would back off hitting Iranian oil infrastructure causing a big selloff.
Since then, oil has been locked in a very tight trading range but calling for a big move depending on the next headline. Overnight a report that the U.S. military used B-2 stealth bombers to target underground bunkers used by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. That should make Ali Hosseini Khamenei hiding out in the ‘world’s strongest bunker’ a bit uneasy.
It gave oil a pop and a drop as U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said, “This was a unique demonstration of the United States’ ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened or fortified.” Yet I wonder why it has taken the US so long to go more aggressive against Houthi targets as they have engaged in acts of war by attacking ships in the Red Sea.
Iran though is still talking. Reuters reported, “The commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards warned Israel against attacking the Islamic Republic in retaliation for a missile barrage as its arch-foe stepped up its offensive in Lebanon against Tehran-backed Hezbollah.
A smaller headline was yesterday’s American Petroleum Institute (API) report. We saw big products drawn in gasoline as we expected as well as a drop in crude oil supply. API numbers showed a 1.580-million-barrel drop in crude supplies, another huge drop in gasoline inventories of 5.926 million barrels as well as a drop in distillates of 2.672 million barrels. While there is no doubt that those numbers were impacted by Hurricane Helene and to a lesser extent Hurricane Milton, it does not change the fact that tight US petroleum inventories do not fit the bearish narratives that are out there.
Inventories of crude oil and products have been trending lower since before the storms and while we may see some recovery next week as things slowly start to normalize, the reality is that going into winter and the peak demand periods of the year, we’re going to have to do better to keep prices low all winter.
In fact, the way oil is holding its ground it looks like they have a chance to build a solid floor just below 7000 a barrel. If that can hold into the front month November crude oil expiration, December crude should be at a seasonal bottom. In fact we are seeing more evidence that US oil production may level out raising more questions about the International Energy Agency optimistic forecast for non-OPEC oil production grow. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) data is showing signs of that. Liberty Energy pointed out that “Since late 2023, U.S. crude oil production has been relatively flat and would likely decline if current completions activity levels persist”.
Because of the Columbus Day holiday, we get two reports for the price of one from the US government. At about 9:30 am central time we get the report from the Energy Information Administration on natural gas then at 10:00a we get the petroleum status report.
Rigzone reported that Henry Hub front month futures have reverted to a downtrend that began in early October, following a temporary peak at $2.55 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) yesterday evening, amidst expectations of warmer weather for the final week of October.
That’s what Ole R. Hvalbye, a Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), told Rigzone in an exclusive interview on Wednesday. “The current natural gas demand in the Lower 48 states has reached its highest level since early September, recording 76.0 billion cubic feet per day today, an increase from the weekly average of 69.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bloomberg data),” Hvalbye said. “Yet, forecasts suggest a rise in temperatures across these states, returning to above-normal levels by the weekend. Hence, reducing demand, thus pushing prices down,” he added. In the interview, Hvalbye stated that today’s estimated feed gas supply to U.S. LNG export terminals stands at 13.2 billion cubic feet per day, “with a noted decrease at the Sabine Pass terminal”. “U.S. domestic natural gas production has slightly declined to 101.4 billion cubic feet per day from a recent high of 102.3 billion cubic feet per day on October 12 and a weekly average of 101.8 billion cubic feet per day,” he added.
“The pricing for U.S. natural gas futures has seen a decrease, with November contracts down 2.7 percent at $2.42 per MMBtu, and December contracts down 1.7 percent at $2.89 per MMBtu,” he continued.
In another exclusive interview today, Phil Flynn, a Senior Market Analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, told Rigzone that natural gas is “pulling back as it looks like the cold blast might ease a bit”. “Shoulder season for demand is in full gear and there are still some lingering power outages in Florida and North Carolina that … [are] reducing demand,” he added. “Traders are also trying to access the possibility of another cold front that may hit the U.S. to start November,” he continued. “While it is too early to tell, some saw that there is a chance that early November could see a record-breaking chill,” Flynn warned.
In a separate exclusive interview, Frederick J. Lawrence, the ex-Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) Chief Economist, told Rigzone that a combination of fundamentals, weather, and other factors are impacting natural gas prices this week.
“Despite the return of colder temperatures to various regions such as the Midwest and Northeast, many regions (such as the Southwest) have recently experienced warmer seasonal weather,” he highlighted. “This could change soon as the central and eastern regions are forecast to receive a cold, Canadian air front during midweek,” he added.
“Natural gas continues to lead as the largest source of power generation for the U.S. In its daily generation mix, the EIA reports that natural gas provides 42 percent of power generation as of 10/16, or 4,342,021 MWh, which was the largest generating source by far with nuclear following at 18 percent and then coal at 15 percent,” he continued. Lawrence noted in the interview that inventories for natural gas have remained fairly comfortable this year.
In the interview, Lawrence said it is important to remember that in addition to its growing role in power demand, the U.S. continues to export more gas globally. “The EIA reported that a total of 26 LNG vessels with 96 Bcf of natural gas departed the U.S. between Oct. 3-9. This compares to 22 vessels carrying 73 Bcf a year ago based on EIA data,” he added.
The move to power the economy of the future is natural gas but also nuclear. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is another company that gets that.
Reuters reported,
“Amazon.com said on Wednesday it has signed three agreements on developing the nuclear power technology called small modular reactors, becoming the latest big tech company to push for new sources to meet surging electricity demand from data centers. Amazon said it will fund a feasibility study for an SMR project near a Northwest Energy site in Washington state. The SMR is planned to be developed by X-Energy. Financial details were not disclosed."
Nuclear power, which generates electricity virtually free of greenhouse gas emissions and provides high-paying union jobs, gets wide support from both Democrats and Republicans.
China slowdown? Not in natural gas. John Kemp reported that CHINA has imported a record volume of gas so far this year, tightening global markets. Combined imports by pipeline and LNG totaled 100 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2024, up from 88 million in the same period in 2023 and easily surpassing the previous record of 91 million in 2021.