While Iran claims they have no say in decisions that the Iranian backed Houthi rebels make, they do provide them with intelligence, well at least they used too. Now comes unconfirmed reports that the Iranian intel ship Zagros (SIGINT) was sunk by U.S. forces. But you can’t say that President Trump didn’t try to warn Iran. President Donald Trump on Monday said that further attacks or retaliation by the Houthis would be considered an attack by Iran and it would face “dire” consequences.
The Houthi rebels have been defiant, causing havoc in the Red Sea attacking ships even attacking the US destroyer the Harry Truman and the none of that would have been possible without the intelligence provided by the Iranian ship Zagros, that now may be on the bottom of the sea.
At the same time the Israeli ceasefire with Hamas is over after Hamas refused to release hostages, officials say. Fox News reported that the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is over as Israeli fighter jets began striking the Gaza Strip after Hamas refused repeated hostage deal offers, officials said. At least 326 Palestinians, including women and children, were killed in the airstrikes, according to hospital officials. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began striking Hamas terrorist targets across Gaza “in order to achieve the war objectives set by the political leadership, including the release of all our hostages—both the living and the fallen,” the office of Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a letter.
Iran is having other shipping problems. Amena Bakr reported that China is still actively buying Iranian crude; however, Iran is facing shipping capacity constraints – Iranian crude floating storage at a 1-year high, according to Kepler. And the way things are going they’re not going to have a lot more oil to ship, especially if they continue to support the Houthi rebels.
The key question is whether the current volatility will move us out of our recent trading range. The trading range for oil has been relatively tight, and there has been pressure on the downside. However, seasonally trends are typically bullish at this time of year, and inventories are notably tight. There is concern about a potential supply deficit in the coming weeks, which could increase oil prices. Despite this, the market has been disregarding these bullish fundamentals, possibly due to sufficient supply. Careful monitoring is essential due to potential price spikes. Increased drilling activity is currently keeping prices stable. Additionally, President Trump’s policies of lifting regulations have significantly impacted the market, which may contribute to lower pricesin the near term.
President Trump signed a CRA Resolution Nullifying Methane Tax Regulations on Energy Producers. Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) President & CEO Jeff Eshelman called it, “Another Win this Week for Common Sense” after President Trump signed a CRA resolution nullifying methane tax regulations on energy producers. He said that President Trump and his Administration took action to nullify the regulations the Biden Administration established to implement the misguided methane tax on oil and natural gas producers.
On Wednesday, EPA announced that the agency is reconsidering its Subpart OOOOb and Subpart OOOOc regulations and its Subpart W greenhouse gas reporting program rules – reconsideration provides a pathway for making these regulations more cost-effective and well-structured. IPAA appreciates President Trump moving quickly to sign this Congressional Review Act resolution and the initiative of Senator John Hoeven (R-ND) and Congressman August Pfluger (R-TX) in guiding the resolution through Congress. “IPAA and our members remain committed to working with the EPA to find a regulatory pathway designed for the sources it regulates, while encouraging continued progress toward reducing emissions. Big new oil and natural gas wells and low producing older wells have differing emissions profiles. Our members are making constant improvements to the technology being used to reduce, measure and report on emissions.”
Natural gas is down after a cold blast lifted prices. Trade war concerns may also be at play. Bloomberg News reported that China hasn’t imported liquefied natural gas from the US for 40 days, the longest gap in almost two years, as traders are forced to divert shipments elsewhere to avoid Beijing’s tariffs on the super-chilled fuel. The barren streak is the most extended since June 2023, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. There currently aren’t any US shipments end route to China either, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler, an analytics firm. The trade war provoked by the Trump administration is threatening to decouple the world’s biggest LNG seller and buyer. Beijing slapped a 15% tariff on US LNG shipments from Feb. 10 in retaliation for blanket American levies on Chinese exports.
Reuters Scott DiSavino reported that U.S. natural gas futures eased to a two-week low on Monday on record output, negative spot prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas and forecasts for the weather to remain mild through the start of April, which should keep the amount of gas utilities pull from storage to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year. Gas stockpiles, however, remained about 12% below normal levels for this time of year after extreme cold in January and February forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 2.8 cents, or 0.7%, to $4.076 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:55 a.m. EDT (1255 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since February 28.
That futures price decline occurred despite record gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas export (LNG) plants and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected. In the spot market, gas prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian shale in West Texas turned negative for the first time since November 2024 due to pipeline maintenance that was trapping gas associated with oil production in the basin. Weather could be key.