Even a dead cat can bounce occasionally, with apologies to cat lovers. After an almost record-breaking string of 7 weekly losses, oil prices are trying to find support ahead of the monthly jobs report and the fact that the oil fundamentals are not so bearish.
It seems that OPEC is already showing signs of making good on their production cut promises as S&P Global Commodity Insights reported that the cartel’s crude production fell 110,000 b/d in November to 42.6 million b/d, as exports from several key producers fell month on month. Quota-exempt Iran and Venezuela together did add 90,000 b/d yet Saudi Arabia pumped 9 mil b/d, Russia slight drop to 9.43 mil b/d.
Vladimir Putin also assured Saudi Arabia that Russia would make good on their production cuts and promised Saudi Arabia that they would be more transparent in releasing data that will show that they are complying. And why not be more transparent despite the price cap charade by Europe and the Biden administration? They know they need the oil regardless of the price. Even European countries showed willful blindness as they continued to knowingly launder barrels of Russian crude oil.
The Biden administration is already getting nervous about the US distillate supply situation. To get more barrels of heavy of crude from Maduro in Venezuela, he lifted sanctions on the regime and that did indeed procure more heavy barrels of oil for the US. Of course, we will need more if winter turns cold. Yet the deal was that the US would lift sanctions if Maduro promised free and fair elections. How is that going?
Reuters reported that, “Venezuela on Wednesday arrested an opposition member for alleged treason after the attorney general said earlier there were arrest warrants out for several people connected to the campaign of opposition presidential nominee Maria Corina Machado for crimes including treason.
We also have the geopolitical risk factor that 3 months ago was sheer panic to the market seeming anesthetized to any risk to supply at all. Yet maybe they should start to worry. Reports from the Jerusalem Post said that:
“Iran seizes two fuel tankers carrying 4.5 million liters of fuel in the Persian Gulf. Maybe the Biden Team can still appease them back into the JPPC deal after all. Maybe they should allow Iran to get a few more billions of dollars for the Iranian regime from somewhere.
I also find it a little curious that the Biden Administration Department of Energy is bragging about a Canadian pipeline extension after foolishly killing the Keystone Pipeline for purely political purposes and to spite Republican voters. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion may come online early next year. Of course, Keystone would have already moved oil. The EIA says that work on Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion project is reportedly over 95% complete, and project officials expect construction to conclude early next year. When it comes onstream, the expansion is expected to nearly triple the pipeline’s current 300,000 barrels per day (b/d) capacity to move crude oil from oil sands in landlocked Alberta to the Pacific Coast for export to new customers in Asia or along the U.S. West Coast. So that Canadian oil is going to be produced anyway? Even after the Biden team killed Keystone.
EIA says that, “The existing Trans Mountain Pipeline currently offers one avenue for waterborne crude oil exports out of Canada by moving crude oil from Edmonton in Alberta to Burnaby, a port near Vancouver on the coast of British Columbia. The expansion project aims to increase the pipeline’s current capacity by 590,000 b/d for a total of 890,000 b/d of capacity.
Oil and products should have finally found the bottom assuming there are no jobs report surprises. The market is extremely oversold so even a dead cat has its day. Look to step in with caution but the lows should be in.
Natural gas is trying to find a bottom as the market balances ample supply versus record-breaking demand. Z4 Energy Research pointed out that Tuesday’s EIA draw of 117 Bcf, was the biggest withdrawal for this week of the year going back to 2013. Yet at the same time, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is reporting that the United States begins the winter with the most natural gas in storage since 2020. The EIA says that working natural gas in storage in the Lower 48 United States ended the natural gas injection season at 3,776 billion cubic feet (Bcf). In addition, we now have 5% more natural gas in U.S. inventories entering the winter heating season than the previous five-year (2018–22) average, and 7% more than last October 31.