Russian economy in 2014: where to look for growth?
Russian economic growth slowed sharply in 2013. We expect 2013 growth to end up at 1.5% y/y, as agriculture and retail sales supported the economy in Q4 13. Yet, we are optimistic and expect an acceleration to 2.6% y/y in 2014 due to improvements in the external environment (US, eurozone), an average oil price over USD100/bl, the 'Sochi Olympics effect', lower inflation, decent private consumption growth, fixed investment expansion and a low base effect.
Despite the nominal weakening of the rouble (-8.5% against the USD and -12% against the EUR over the past 12 months), high inflation ensures real appreciation of the rouble as inflation in trade partner countries is lower on average. We expect the RUB to get support before the Sochi Olympics as sentiment is improving on strong seasonality and the better demand for Russian currency. However, we expect the positive effect to fade away at the end of Q1 14. We remain bearish on the RUB, especially against the USD.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.
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The EMEA Week In Review
Published 01/10/2014, 06:36 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
The EMEA Week In Review
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