The euro has been cratering against the US dollar. Or the dollar has been rocketing against the euro. Take your pick. They are both true. It just depends upon your perspective.
But oddly enough in the current world there is another major currency, the yen, that is also moving a lot more than average. It too has lost a lot of ground against the US dollar. But how does it fair against the euro? And what might that mean?
The chart above shows the relationship between the Rydex Currency Shares Euro Currency (NYSE:FXE) and the Rydex Currency Shares Japanese Yen (ARCA:FXY) since the low made in July of 2012. Since that time it rose from a level of 0.95 to 1.51 as a peak in December last year. During this time the Japanese had been actively trying to improve their economy through monetary policy. But then the pair quickly reversed. This as the ECB was about to embark on its own round of quantitative easing.
The first leg lower took the pair to 1.34 before a bounce to resistance at 1.37. This is at the bottom of the consolidation throughout 2014. Now it has resumed the move lower and is pausing this week at a 38.2% retracement of the up leg.
A measured move lower suggests the downside is not done yet and could go to 1.19. That is awfully close to a 61.8% retracement at 1.17.
There are a couple of macro takeaways from this chart and analysis. First, the US dollar most likely got its start higher from a weakening yen combined with a change to a neutral stance at the Fed. But more importantly going forward, with the ECB just getting started, and Japan continuing with a weak yen, the US dollar is unlikely to be done with its move higher. Especially if the Federal Reserve embarks on a tightening path.
There may be some expected Fed tightening baked into the current dollar valuation, so if expectations of a rate hike gets pushed back there may be a pause or small pullback in the dollar. But after a reset of expectations it is more likely to resume an upward path given no change and possible acceleration in the path of both the euro and the yen.
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