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Corn And Ethanol: Hurricane Sally Strikes

Published 09/17/2020, 09:47 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
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Now that Hurricane Sally made landfall and tracking her path of heavy rains which is now moving northwestward, we also are watching Disturbance 1 which has become better organized and could form into a Tropical Depression later today over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
 
Hurricane Teddy is expected to become a major Hurricane later today and the current cone has it striking Bermuda at 2:00 A.M. Monday and veering eastward and potentially not threatening the U.S. coastline.
 
Tropical Storm Vicky moving west-northwest at 6 knots and the path is changing to south-southwest and expected to dissipate by early Saturday morning, while Disturbance 3 located over the far Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores with a 10% chance of Cyclone Formation in the next 48 Hours.
 
On the corn front, funds have stepped in and added to their net long positions in yesterday’s action, and even in an overbought market the market is traded above Tuesday’s high which technically is significant signal in which we could see even more higher prices with China purchases a wildcard and U.S. farmers reluctant to sell at these current levels until they digest the actual yields their fields will produce. As of Sunday, the corn harvest was 5% picked and 2020 so far has proved to this is not your average run of the mill harvest or hurricane season. In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 372 ¼ which is a ½ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 373 to 369 ½.
 

On the ethanol front, Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ:PEIX) is making headlines again with the stock rising 15% in early trade on Wednesday. One analyst quintupled its target on the stock, according to Rich Smith with Motley Fool. The reason in this rise to a stock recently relisted by the exchange is really simple, they renewed and improved their business model to enhance any sort of a profit during the pandemic which crippled the industry. In the overnight electronic session, the October ethanol posted a trade at 1.295 which was unchanged with 2 contracts traded. The market is currently showing 2 bids at 1.290 and 2 offers at 1.295 with Open Interest at 40 contracts.

On the crude oil front, futures jumped 5% in yesterday’s trade marking the best day since the June recovery following prices going into negative territory during the Russian-Saudi price war. Hurricanes did come into play with this price spike as inventories dropped and we are still bracing for more weather-related disruptions this active hurricane season. 

On the natural gas front, we have the EIA Gas Storage today. Although, Hurricane Sally’s presence has been felt, the impact was minimal compared to the worst-case scenarios. The Reuters poll of the Gas Storage with 16 analysts participating estimate builds ranging from 63bcf to 89bcf with the actual increase of 79bcf. This compares to the one-year injection of 97bcf and the five-year average of 80bcf. 

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