We start off the day with {0|S&P Global}} Composite PMI Flash (Apr), {0|S&P Global}} Manufacturing PMI Flash (Apr), and {0|S&P Global}} Services PMI Flash at 8:45 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage at 2:00 P.M. and IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings.
On the corn front, the futures ended lower with profit-taking in the mix. Even with a decent export number, traders can go numb as these markets can do a complete turnaround in a day regardless of the bullish fundamentals.
With a weak South American export market and the Ukraine exports taken off the board, the US market will have to fill in the void in the global marketplace. Also, with the weather, we are contending within the Corn Belt and already behind in plantings, which add to the bullish fundamentals.
We have Las Trading Day on May grain options today. In the overnight electronic session, the July corn is currently trading at 802 ¼, which is 7 cents higher. The trading range has been 804 to 788.
On the ethanol front, predictions are dropping for corn use for ethanol use to drop 25 million bushels due to rail logistics, with President Biden waiving rules of restricting ethanol blending to E15 in the summer months. Fuel analyst Patrick De Haan with Gas Buddy says ethanol did not contain the same energy as gasoline and noted he does not believe you will notice much difference in Miles Per Gallon. Mr. De Haan also said going up from E10 to E15 is really negligible, and most people would not notice a decrease in energy content in the form of fuel efficiency. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
On the Crude oil front, the EU is closing in on the Russian oil ban, but most question how tough it will be. Diplomats fear support may be watered down to win support from more hesitant countries, such as Germany and Hungary. Concerns over Russia and Libya supply disruptions is another aspect the market is looking at.
Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group, said:
“It’s not as easy to trade as a couple of weeks ago,”
He went on to say, You have to risk more, and that may be by design with hedge funds and also funds trading more.
I do believe with all of this goofiness in volatility the market will trade higher in the long run. Let’s face it 8.5% inflation is not cutting it. In the overnight electronic session, the June crude oil is currently trading at 10292, 87 points lower. The trading range has been 10422 to 10122.
The political football continues on the natural gas front as the Ukraine lobbies for cuts in Nord Stream 1 gas shipments. With the administration’s war on fracking, fossil fuels, pipelines, etc. We realize what a pickle we are in with is own energy to tap into. The administration should welcome and accept the oil industry with open arms other than kill it. I hate to be redundant, but this was all self-inflicted.
I hope all the go green people realize all the energy the US is importing is not as clean as US energy because US Oil has to follow strict regulations by these go. In the overnight electronic session, the June natural gas is currently trading at 6.939, 0.157 lower. The trading range has been 7.214 to 6.888.
How is that working out for you?