Crop Production USDA Supply/Demand
We kickoff this Tuesday with Producer Price Index (PPI) and Wholesale Trade at 7:30 A.M., Crop Production, USDA Supply/Demand at 11:00 A.M. and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M. I am not sure what to expect on the grain data today with plantings and weather in the big picture. Weather is keeping farmers from the fields, and with corn plantings set to be lower, world supply for human consumption expected to be the lowest in years, and the South American crop in question, all eyes will look at the bread basket of the world. And that would be the U.S. market. Speaking of corn, the market is trading a little easier in the overnight electronic session ahead of the 11:00 A.M. data. The May contract is currently trading at 390 ¼ which is a ½ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 391 ½ to 389 ½.
On the Ethanol front, U.S. lawmakers asked President Trump to press the EPA to temporarily cease the biofuels waiver actions in a letter. The letter comes after the EPA granted 25 hardship exemptions to refineries, ahead of the White House meeting on the issue. With Crude Oil prices where they are and tight supplies, which is unheard of at this time of year, increasing demand is further pressuring refineries. This meeting could be a good floor show. In the overnight electronic session, the May Ethanol posted a trade at 1.463 which is .004 higher. 1 contract traded and Open Interest is at 1,131 contracts. The market is currently showing 2 bids at 1.460 and 1 offer at 1.464.
On the Crude Oil front, the market is rolling, it looks like China blinked on the tariff talk. We may get a negotiated settlement and a more even playing field shortly. In the overnight electronic session, the May Crude Oil is currently trading at 6480 which is 138 points higher and seeking new highs as I write the current high is 6482 and the low is 6320.
On the Natural Gas front, wacky weather is supporting the market for now. If we ever see warm temperatures again, this market will be in free fall. Speaking to one of my sources in the front lines I learned that on Sunday there was record production. Yes, I said Sunday; this does not bode well for the cash market. In the overnight electronic session, the May contract is currently trading at 2.713, which is 2 cents higher. The trading range has been 2.724 to 2.682.