The Case For Continued JPY Depreciation Still Strong

Published 04/04/2013, 03:11 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

New BoJ governor Kuroda definitely left his mark in connection at Thursday's monetary meeting, at which the BoJ announced easing measures that far exceeded market expectations. The main messages are the bank's strong commitment to its 2% inflation target, and that aggressive monetary easing will be continued next year. This suggests continued JPY depreciation.

On Thursday, the BoJ announced a return to its QE regime from 2002-2006 when it targeted the monetary base. The bank intends to close to double the monetary base by end-2014. In addition, government bond purchases were increased. The BoJ signalled that the aggressive pace of government bond purchases of over 10% GDP will be continued next year. The maturities of BoJ's government bond purchases were also increased, and the bank has temporarily suspended its so-called 'note rule'.

Governor Kuroda appears to have strong board support for his bold easing strategy - only one member out of nine dissented. With aggressive easing in Japan expected to continue next year and the Fed expected to scale down its asset purchases, the case for continued depreciation of JPY remains strong in our view.

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