Not much happened on the stock markets last week. But that alone is very positive news after the DAX rally of more than 22 percent in just eight weeks. And the fact that things are quiet on Wall Street around the Thanksgiving weekend could also mean that the market is now gathering strength for the year-end rally that will start these days.
At least seasonality is now more in favor of rising than falling prices. This is another reason why few people want to sell their shares, even if short-term gains are tempting after the brilliant recovery. If the DAX takes the 14,500 points into the weekend and the Americans return to the stock market in a good mood on Monday after a positive start to the Christmas business, the DAX could soon head for the 15,000 mark.
Fed slowly takes its foot off the brake
This week's positive news from monetary policy is that the end of the line in interest rate hikes is in sight, at least if the Fed has its way. The meeting minutes at the beginning of November, published in midweek, show that the Council has already agreed to reduce the pace of interest rate steps. There is thus much to be said for the next increase in December of only 50 basis points, with the prospect of an early end to the rate hike cycle. For it must not be forgotten that the last time the central bankers met was before the surprising declines in inflation rates.
Pros and cons of further rising inflation
Germany's largest car manufacturer Volkswagen (OTC:VLKAF), is adding fuel to the fire of rising inflation. The Wolfsburg-based company has agreed with the IG Metall trade union and will pay its employees 8.5 percent more in two steps, plus a one-off 3,000 euros net.
The wage-price spiral thus continues to turn, likely to be reflected in the coming inflation rates. At least there is good news from the shipping companies. Global freight rates are falling again. Shipping containers and, thus, the cost of delivering goods globally are becoming cheaper.
Prices have now returned to pre-Corona levels. So this is a factor working against the rapid price increases. And for the first time since the Corona crash a good two and a half years ago, German producer prices are falling again. The year-on-year increase of over 34 percent in October still sounds breathtakingly high.
Still, compared to the 46 percent just a month earlier, a downward trend may have been initiated in this critical leading indicator for the inflation rate. New figures will be available next Wednesday when the consumer price indices for Germany and the Eurozone for November are published. Anything that is no longer in double digits would most likely be too good to be true for the stock market.
When will the US labor market finally show signs of weakness?
That leaves the robust US labor market, from which we will get new information on Friday next week. The Fed is still getting support for its restrictive monetary policy. Even after more than a year and a half of inflation rates between five and ten percent, the unemployment rate in the US is still at a 60-year low of 3.7 percent.
If the first signs of weakness were to emerge here due to the cutbacks in personnel announced by many companies in recent weeks, the Fed would receive another argument for a pause in its interest rate hike cycle, in addition to a renewed decline in inflation. The next week thus, at least offers a lot of potential to free the stock markets from their almost lethargy - but this, as always, in both directions.
DAX - current supports and resistances
Supports: 14,400/14,350 + 14,200/14,150 + 14,050/14,000
Resistances: 14,550/14,600 + 14,700/14,750 + 14,800/14,850