USD: The USD was fairly muted across the board, as the US observed the Independence Day holiday.
CAD: The main mover within the majors was the CAD, which garnered a bid in the middle of the London afternoon as the Canadian press reacted to a Handelsblatt piece (run late yesterday). The Globe & Mail highlighted that speculation that the Bank of Canada is preparing to raise its key interest rate. This comes in the wake of the central bank striking a more hawkish tone in more recent weeks. Poloz told the German outlet that “if the central bank only watched and reacted to inflation, it would never reach its inflation target and it would always be two years behind in the reaction.”
The move also coincided with yet another expansionary Canadian manufacturing PMI reading and an uptick in oil, with USDCAD falling from circa 1.2970 to 1.2920.
JPY: The JPY garnered a modest bid overnight in the wake of the latest North Korean missile test, before the USDJPY trickled higher alongside US stock index futures, closing the afternoon out around 113.20.
AUD: The AUD took a hit as the RBA broke the trend central banks turning hawkish, with the AUDUSD pair briefly trading below 0.7600. The Reserve Bank flagged issues around employment growth (suggesting that indicators remained mixed), slow wage growth (which remains low, and the RBA believe that it is likely to stay that way for a while) and housing debt 'outpacing' incomes.
The central bank also reiterated that a rising AUD would complicate any economic adjustment. The RBA’s statement wasn’t all negative, and the central bank was relatively upbeat on business conditions, it highlighted that domestic growth is expected to slowly strengthen, while suggesting that the global economy is picking up.
All in all, the RBA maintained its neutral bias, and the AUDUSD cross traded between 0.7590 and 0.7620 for the majority of the European session.
NZD: The NZD garnered support against the AUD post-RBA, although failed to rally further on the back of a marginally higher than expected WMP price at the latest GDT auction, with the NZDUSD closing out London trade just shy of 0.7300
GBP: GBP stuck to a tight range amid conflicting views from Bank of England voters, as Vlieghe stuck to his dovish playbook, while hawkish dissenter McCafferty suggested that it was “prudent to start raising interest rates.”
SEK: The SEK softened as the Riksbank removed its easing bias (as expected) and failed to deliver any meaningful hawkish rhetoric and any notable change in its projected interest rate path. EURSEK ran into sellers in front of 9.70 following the decision, and closed out European trade around 9.6730.