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Technical Factors Could Drive The September Euro Higher

ByThe Pattern, Price & Time Report
AuthorJames Hyerczyk
Published 07/10/2012, 07:25 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

The September euro formed a closing price reversal on the daily chart on Tuesday, signaling that perhaps the market may have reached a short-term bottom. Monday’s low was 1.2266 and its high was 1.2336. A trade through the high will confirm the chart pattern while a break through the bottom will negate it.

Daily September Euro Pattern, Price & Time Analysis
Based on the near-term range of 1.2759 to 1.2266, the market may be set-up for a possible rally into the retracement zone at 1.2513 to 1.2571. Standing in the way of this retracement is a downtrending Gann angle at 1.2459. A rally into this angle is likely to attract fresh shorting pressure.
 
The euro rose on Tuesday after the European Union agreed to provide aid to Spain. Disappointing Chinese trade data pressured the euro slightly overnight, but not enough to wash out yesterday’s small gain.
 
On Tuesday, the eurogroup issued a statement supporting the plan to give Spain more time to contain its fiscal deficit. The arrangement calls for the eurogroup to provide as much as 30 billion euros to assist Spanish banks by the end of this month. The announcement may have come just in time as Spain’s 10-year bonds moved above the critical 7% price level on Monday.
 
Although the news underpinned the euro on Monday, it did begin to weaken early during Tuesday’s session as investors remained pessimistic regarding secondary-market interventions and preferred creditor status beyond Spanish bank aid.
 
A short-covering rally may be in order on Tuesday as traders are likely to square positions ahead of Wednesday’s key FOMC minutes. This report is likely to add a little volatility to the market as it will offer insight into how and why the Fed would implement additional quantitative easing.

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