In Sweden we look forward to the labour force survey (including employment and the unemployment rate), which is published on Monday (at 09.30 CEST), the trade balance and the NIER's business and consumer confidence published on Wednesday (09.30 CEST). The week is concluded with retail sales data on Thursday (at 09.30 CEST). To cut a long story short, we expect to see a slight moderation of momentum in activity data.
The Riksbank continued the QE programme in H2,but the purchases will take place at a slower place. The Riksbank seems to have a higher acceptance for SEK appreciation now. We remain positive on the SEK.
Very busy week in Norway. March retail sales (Thursday) will give us an idea of how lower real wage growth and higher unemployment are impacting on consumer spending and the retail trade. We expect retail sales to climb 0.3% m/m after falling in February. The Q1 manufacturing tendency survey (Thursday) will give us a more reliable indication of whether the decline in industrial activity is now slowing, as both the PMI and industrial production data seem to be suggesting. Based on the PMI, we expect the main indicator to climb from -8.2 in Q4 to -5 in Q1.
The week also brings an interim round of Norges Bank's regional network survey (Friday). We expect firms to report limited changes since the main round in February. As usual, we will attach most importance to the NAV unemployment data (Friday). While we expect the jobless rate to fall to 3.2% in April for seasonal reasons, we reckon gross unemployment will climb by 800 people m/m following the surprise fall in March, which has to be put down to the timing of Easter.
In Denmark Friday brings figures for foreign portfolio investments and the Nationalbank's securities statistics, both for March.
EUR/DKK remains in the intervention zone.
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