With another light calendar, much of the FX price action has been a continuation of the fallout from last week’s OPEC meeting. WTI and Brent both saw significant weakness throughout the session with futures breaking below USD 37/bbl and USD 40/bbl respectively to reach fresh multi year lows. In line with the softness in energy prices, the likes of CAD, NOK and MXN all saw significant softness against the USD, with USD/NOK reaching its lowest level since March 2002, at which time WTI futures traded for around USD 25/bbl.
The notable FX move during Asia pacific hours saw CNY fall against the greenback to see its weakest close in 4-yrs. This came after the PBoC weakened CNY fix the most since Aug 27th in a reaction to yesterday’s larger than expected decline in the nation’s foreign reserves. In turn, the latest lacklustre trade data could also provide the impetus for further deprecation in the CNY setting.
Despite the softness in commodity currencies and the CNY, the USD-index still spent much of the session in negative territory, weighed on by strength in major pairs, with JPY stronger after Japan came out of a technical recession (Q/Q 0.30% vs. Exp. 0.00%), with EUR also remaining firm against the USD for much of the day, aided by a large option expiry, which rolled off at the 10am NY cut at 1.0925 (3.2bln).
Looking ahead, tomorrow’s most notable event comes in the form of the RBNZ rate decision, while the US sees the latest wholesale inventories reading and DoE crude oil inventories and scheduled speakers include ECB’s Lautenschlaeger, Nowotny and Hansson.