Talking Forex Daily Wrap: AUD Holds Onto Overnight RBA Gains

AUD holds onto overnight RBA gains while CAD sees strength on the back of better than expected GDP ahead of tomorrow’s BoC rate decision

With no tier 1 data out of the US today, focus in FX markets have moved elsewhere. Antipodean currencies saw strength heading into the European session and AUD has managed to retain its gains after the RBA held their key rate at 2.25%. The majority of analysts anticipating a cut, leading to AUD seeing strength at the announcement of the decision, however these were capped by the central bank’s signalling of further easing by saying it may be appropriate over the period ahead. NZD also strengthened on the RBA decision before the bi-weekly release of the Fonterra GlobalDairyTrade Auction, which saw the price index rises 1.1% and whole milk powder price index declines 1.0%, leading to volatility but not a sustained reaction due to the mixed nature of the auction. Fonterra’s auction is of relevance to New Zealand as approximately 7% of the country’s GDP comes from milk exports.

Away from the Antipodes, USD/CAD fell over 80 pips after the release of Canadian GDP (2.4% vs. Exp. 2.0%, Prev. 2.8%) with gains led by consumer spending and an increase in business stockpiles. Of note, while this figure was better than analyst expectations, the release is below the BoC’s forecast of 2.5%, however this print alone is unlikely to shift the interest rate decision tomorrow, where just 5 out of 23 surveyed analysts expect a BoC cut.

Elsewhere, SEK has also seen notable strength today after a host of Riksbank speakers, with some hawkish rhetoric which combined with last week’s GDP figure to see EUR/SEK break the cross’ 200DMA to the downside to trade at its lowest level of 2015. Finally, TRY came under pressure today with participants expecting further rates cuts at the Turkish central bank's meeting on March 17th as a result of ongoing political pressure from the government who are unhappy with the bank's attempts to control inflation.

Towards the end of the session, USTs pared the day’s losses on the back of weakness in equities, leading to yields being less attractive, which saw outflows in USD, and thereby strength in JPY. This move continued the earlier move lower in USD/JPY, when overnight Japanese PM Abe’s adviser Honda suggested current levels in the pair are a kind of an upper limit in the exchange rate’s comfort zone

Looking ahead to tomorrow, as well as the aforementioned BoC rate decision, Australia are scheduled to release their GDP, there are a host of Services PMIs and US ADP Employment change from the US.