In Sweden , the week ahead is thankfully somewhat more exciting than the past week. On Tuesday (at 09.30 CEST), Statistics Sweden publishes retail sales, trade balance and producer price data. The last outcomes were more depressed than seasonal patterns suggest so some rebound in retail sales and trade balance should be expected. On Wednesday (at 09.00 CEST), the National Institute for Economic Research (NIER) releases business and consumer confidence surveys and we will look into pricing plans and the development of labour market indicators.
In Norway it will be very interesting in light of this week's surprisingly weak LFS data to see whether NAV unemployment (due Friday) continues to come down. The gap between the two jobless measures is rapidly widening and has never been bigger. While the LFS has shown the number of jobless rising by 10,000 over the past three months, the NAV's figures show unemployment falling over the same period. The week also brings retail sales for August on Wednesday, where we expect an increase of 0.8% m/m.
Norges Bank is tapping in the government bond market. We look for yet another tap in the 10Y segment. NGBs have underperformed strongly against Germany over the past couple of weeks and we now see value in going against this trend especially in the 5Y segment.
In Denmark , EUR/DKK has moved higher over the past couple of weeks. However, we view the pressure on the DKK as temporary.
The Danish statistical office has a busy week in store. Thursday's unemployment figures for August will be interesting after the monthly employment measure fell slightly in July for the first time since early 2013. Also out on Thursday is manufacturing confidence, which declined in both July and August, so it will be interesting to see whether this continued in September. Wednesday, meanwhile, brings housing prices for Q2. Finally, the Nationalbank releases its securities statistics and foreign portfolio investments data for August on Wednesday.
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