On 12 November we entered a long position in the NOK/SEK based on relative yields and relative inflation (SEK under pressure - NOK/SEK supported by relative yields).
We argued that on the back of the surprisingly low inflation figure, the risk balance had tilted in favour of a rate cut in December. Norges Bank is expected to stay on hold.
NOK/SEK has been in an uptrend since we entered the position, up more than 1% in three days, supported by relative yields. We continue to see further upside potential but, given surrounding uncertainties, we choose to:
- Lock in profit on half the position (ref 1.0840) - and
- Raise stop-loss to entry at 1.0725 on the remaining part.
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