In Sweden, the week ahead will be about one thing and one thing only - the January consumer price index (Tuesday at 09:30 CET).
We expect an unusually sharp fall in prices compared to December 2014, -1.2% m/m for CPI and -1.1% m/m for CPIF corresponding to a y/y rate of minus 0.35% and + 0.5%.
In Norway, data is set to be thin on the ground, with the only release of note being trade balance data for January. Stronger global growth and a weaker krone boosted mainland exports towards the end of 2014 and higher export growth helped counter the negative impact on the economy of lower activity in oil-related industries.
The Danish rates market was looking for another unilateral Danish rate cut last Thursday, but Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) did not deliver anything at all. The fact that DN did not cut rates last week indicates to us that FX intervention seems to be the preferred tool for now.
Given that the clear strategy of the Danish central bank has been to make DKK assets so expensive that it deters inflow, a QE programme could also be introduced at a later stage.
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