First out in Sweden are inventory data (Monday, at 09.30 CET) from both the industrial and services sectors. This will have a direct impact on GDP and will hopefully clarify how corporates are responding to the current turmoil. Next out is the all-important January inflation outcome (Thusday, at 09.30 CET). We continue to see Swedish inflation rising much slower in 2016 than expected by the Riksbank. But no major deviation expected in January. Last but not least the January labour force survey is being published on Friday (at 09.30 CET).
In Norway the coming week brings the central bank governor's annual address (Thursday). Unlike what the markets seem to think, this is generally taken as an opportunity to focus on structural challenges and rarely on concrete monetary policy issues - but you never know!
We expect Norwegian mainland-GDP growth (due on Tuesday) to slow further to 0.0% q/q in Q4. Private consumption grew slightly more quickly in Q4, and both public sector demand and housing investment are holding firm. On the other hand, business investment probably continued its decline, and we know that net exports will make a clear negative contribution to GDP in Q4.
The Danish Debt Management Office will tap in 2Y and 30Y segment on Wednesday. Denmark has underperformed Germany recently as Bunds have rallied. Spreads to Germany are now well above those we saw ahead of the strong currency inflow in Q1 last year. We also see signs that liquidity and turn-over in the market is in on the rise. All in all we believe that the 'high spreads' will attract investor demand at the auction.
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