In Sweden , the week ahead is over almost before it even starts, as GDP Q3 is published on Monday at 09.30 CET and there is not much else of interest during the week. In short, we expect GDP growth of 3.2% y/y, which is a tad below the Riksbank's forecast.
In Norway , the key event of the week should, of course, be the release of Norges Bank's regional network survey on Friday. The central bank's preferred economic indicator carries considerable weight when the bank considers the domestic economy's short-term prospects. We predict that the aggregate output index will be around 0. Add in a contribution from the public sector of a few tenths of a percentage point, and this is closely in line with Norges Bank's projections in the September monetary policy report. Developments in the domestic economy should not therefore be an argument either for or against a rate cut in December, and we see this as the final nail in the coffin in this regard.
Ahead of the regional network results, we will get Norwegian PMI data for November on Tuesday. The past two months' increases in the index point to industry stabilising, as mentioned above, so the November figures should tell us whether that was just noise, and perhaps whether the drop in oil prices since the summer has sparked a further decline in the industrial sector.
In Denmark , a variety of interesting data are on the agenda. On Wednesday, the Nationalbank will publish currency reserves data for November.
The ECB decision on Thursday could also have ramifications for Denmark . Our main scenario is that the Danish central bank will not mirror a possible rate move from the ECB, as the deposit rate is already at -0.75%, which is probably close to the effective lower bound. However, recently it has become clear that the ECB might in fact be very aggressive on Thursday. Hence, there is non-negligible risk that such a move could force a rapid currency flow into Denmark. In such a situation, a Danish rate cut should not be completely ruled out, a lower current account limit (liquidity that can be placed at zero over night), a cut in the current account rate or even a Danish QE programme should not be ruled out in such circumstances.
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