We have a busy calendar in Sweden . Main focus in Q3 GDP data. Our models suggest Q3 calendar-adjusted GDP continued the pace seen in previous quarters, and we estimate 3.3% y/y, which is slightly higher than the 3.1% y/y recorded in Q2. The NIER November confidence survey is always interesting. Manufacturing has continued to trend upwards in 2017 and the question is how far it can go.
Household lending and retail sales will give additional input on consumers' reaction to recent developments. The latter printed a stunning 4.6% y/y in October and we expect a slowdown to 3.4% y/y. Lending growth is still too high for the Riksbank's taste (7.1% y/y).
The FSA is due to release its Financial Stability Report and is likely to mirror the message from the Riksbank's report, which came out last week.
In Norway , retail sales have fallen for the past two months after several months of strong growth. We see scope for a small rebound in retail sales in October to +0.7% m/m. Also coming up is unemployment data from the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) for November. We expect the jobless rate to be unchanged at 2.4% in November, and gross unemployment to fall by only around 500 people m/m.
Finally, the City of Oslo is coming to the market with two deals: a 10Y fixed rate bond on 29 November and a 9.5Y fixed rate bond on 5 December - both denominated in NOK. The City of Oslo is set to sell some NOK1.5bn in each bond.
In Denmark , the week brings the full national accounts for Q3. Figures for unemployment in October are being published the same day.
Securities statistics and foreign portfolio investments for October are due to be released on Tuesday. Here, we will continue to focus on whether foreign demand for Danish mortgage bonds has continued unabated in October.