In Sweden , focus turns to GDP data (Tuesday, 09:30 CET). We estimate an outcome around at or a tad above 2% y/y in calendar-adjusted terms (implying, in the absence of revisions, slightly above 0.5% q/q, seasonally and working-day adjusted).
In Norway , the week's big release is registered unemployment for February from the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV). We expect gross unemployment to fall by 200 people m/m in February, taking the jobless rate down marginally to 3.1%. The week also brings retail sales figures for January, hotly awaited after the surprise 2.1% slide in December. We expect retail sales to climb 0.9% m/m in January. Norges Bank will tap the bond markets on Wednesday with the announcement on Monday at 12.00 CET. We expect a tap in the new 10Y bond.
In Denmark , FX reserve data on Thursday are in focus. In February the DKK climbed to its highest levels against the EUR since Lars Rohde began as governor of the Nationalbank in 2013, so the market will be keeping a particularly close eye on whether this has prompted the central bank to sell DKK and so expand the currency reserves.
Last week we published Le Pen - What If? Implications for Euro and Nordic market (23 February) in which we look at the financial implications of a Le Pen win in the French Presidential election. We argue that such an outcome could trigger safe-haven flows into the Nordic markets and widen asset swap spreads as seen during the European debt crisis in 2011/2012 . In Denmark non-callable bonds are an interesting alternative to government bonds given that the market in our view is already offering value and that liquidity is expected to be superior to liquidity in DGBs in a stress situation as we saw in the beginning of 2015.
Both the NOK and the SEK krone are expected to appreciate against the EUR after a Le Pen victory, whereas the DKK krone is already trading at a strong level against the EUR and further appreciation pressure is expected to be mitigated effectively by the Danish central bank using FX intervention.
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