There is political twin deadlock in Italy and the U.S. and it remains to be seen how this will unfold in the weeks ahead and whether macro data will respond negatively. This issue will probably be very important for risk sentiment and flows in and out of Swedish 10-year bonds. We expect the yield-curve out to five years to remain dependent on (domestic) macro performance.
We discuss in more detail our reasoning behind establishing a flattener between SGB1052 and SGB1054. Basically, the trade appears less directional, while it allows us to position for underperformance in the 5Y segment.
Trades
Earlier this week we published Strategy – Sweden: Reduce delta sensitive positions, 26 February, with the following recommendations.
New, we establish a flattener between SGB1054 vs SGB1052. Start: 33.5. P/L 20/45.
New, we keep a short position in SGB1053 and buy SGB1054 against. Start: 83.5. P/L 97/70.
New, to neutralise more bearish positions we buy a small position in SGB1054 outright. Start: 1.92 P/L 1.80/2.02.
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