We take a closer look at the implication of the ECB QE for the Riksbank. In the short term - i.e. concerning the decision in February - we believe that the board feels quite at ease and without stress. Actual inflation in December was a few tenths above forecast and the Swedish krona is clearly on the weak side of the Riksbank's forecast, so there is no issue here.
Our approach boils down to believing that at present it is less likely that the Riksbank will use unconventional measures, but we do not exclude that it can be done later on. We do not have it, however, as a main scenario.
In Sweden, the week ahead will provide us with a few of the last pieces to the GDP Q4 14 puzzle. We have trade balance, retail sales and business and consumer confidence from NIER.
In Norway, the week brings labour market data from both Statistics Norway and NAV. We expect LFS unemployment to be unchanged at 3.8% in November and registered unemployment to climb to 3.1% in January. Statistics Norway will also release its Q4 manufacturing tendency survey.
We also argue that EUR/NOK in the short-term could continue to move lower in the aftermath of the ECB QE programme and as oil prices seem to be stabilizing.
In Denmark, all eyes are on the Danish central bank and the recent rate cuts. We expect that the inflow will continue this week and new rate cuts should certainly not be ruled out. We ask the question: who is buying Danish assets and DKK? We still value in positioning for lower rates and yields in Denmark.
We will also throughout the week keep an eye on the daily Net position data at 16.00 cet from the Danish central bank. They give a good indication of the size of the intervention conducted by the Danish central bank. Today, we will get the numbers for Thursday last week, where inflow probably accelerated.
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