Last week, we participated in the IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington DC , meeting with over 30 different IMF country teams on the most important advanced economies and emerging markets. These meetings are a bit like a 'Cannes festival' for economists - not only are there so many great and interesting meetings and fora with leading global experts and IMF staff, the meetings also have an air of economist 'celebrity spotting' to them, with the world's leading central bank chiefs and finance ministers walking around next to you. And with Trump in the White House just 500m away, you do feel close to the epicentre of world politics. Here, we present some key takeaways.
Boost to short-run growth increases medium-term risks
At these meetings, the IMF raised its near-term growth projections for the global economy to 3.9% in both 2018 and 2019 . A key driver of the near-term stronger growth outlook is fiscal loosening in the US, boosting US real GDP growth to 2.9% and 2.4% in those years. Asia continues to be the fastest growing region in the world due to fast population growth (Malaysia, Indonesia, and India), decent productivity growth and sound macroeconomic policies Although the IMF is cautious about China's ability to deleverage its large debt burden, the IMF has nevertheless raised its forecast for the country's economic growth. Oil-importing African countries and Eastern Europe are also going to witness high growth rates over the next two years.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below: