Stocks start nervously today as trade hopes fade
US indices rose yesterday on hopes China would look through the recent US blacklisting steps and make progress in the trade talks. Those gains have been wiped out in early trading this morning as China damped expectations for a broader deal. EU says they are no closer to a solution to the Irish backstop issue.
US30 USD Daily Chart
The Dow Jones 30 Futures index rose for the first time in three days yesterday, but those gains proved to be short-lived as trade talk progress failed to materialise
The index has tested the 200-day moving average at 25,994 today, but has so far failed to sustain a breach below. It has held on a closing basis since August 14
US consumer prices are expected to rise 1.8% y/y in September, a slightly faster pace than August. Fed’s Kashkari and Mester are scheduled to speak later in the day.
DE30EUR Daily Chart
The DAX index touched the highest in a week yesterday but is already trading lower this morning
The index tested the 100-day moving average at 12,122 yesterday but failed to close above it. The 200-day moving average is at 11,843
Germany’s trade surplus is expected to narrow to €19.1b in August from €20.2b the prior month amid a 1.0% m/m contraction in exports, the latest survey of economists shows. The minutes of the last ECB meeting are also published today.
CN50USD Daily Chart
The China A50 index jumped the most in almost two months yesterday, touching the highest since September 24. However, the index is likely to give up some of those gains today as trade talk progress fails to emerge
The index may stall ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from September 6 to October 3 at 13,819
China’s new loans data for September may be due today and is expected to show a total of 1.4 trillion yuan of loans granted. In 2019 the average monthly total has been 1.49 trillion yuan ($206 billion).