Market movers today
Today is a very busy day. At 10:00 CET, we expect Norges Bank to stay on hold but to confirm plans to tighten monetary policy in March. That said, the interest rate path in the monetary policy report can be expected to be somewhat more cautious than in September. See Scandi section page 2.
At 13:45 CET, we expect the ECB to formally end the QE programme. While this is (on paper) a hawkish policy move, we expect a dovish tightening as confirmation and reassurance of an accommodative monetary policy stance going forward. We expect no new guidance on a first rate hike. The press conference begins at 14:30 CET where we expect Draghi will try to be as 'dull' as possible. See ECB Preview: A new chapter of dovish tightening, 7 December.
The EU summit will begin today with Brexit on the agenda. While the EU27 has said they will not renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement (including the backstop), they have indicated they will discuss how to help give UK PM Theresa May further assurance that it is not in the EU's interest to keep the UK 'trapped' in the backstop solution indefinitely. The question is whether such an assurance is enough to calm UK politicians so they will support the deal when put forward in the House of Commons.
US initial jobless claims due out 14:30 CET will be interesting. Initial jobless claims have risen steadily from the bottom at 202,000 in September to 231,000 the last time. While still low, an increase may add fuel to concerns the US economy is slowing.
Swedish Prospera's inflation expectations survey is due out at 08:00 CET and unemployment data is due out at 09:30 CET.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below..