Stock Market Wars: Return Of The Bulls

I predict a stock market rise today due to better economic data and hope for more records

The Fortune Teller Speaks:
The bulls just might take over the stock market again today, given the better jobs data and frantic buying to get more records.

Wall Street Beats & Jives:
Today is a huge day for economic data, with the Weekly Jobless Claims (323,000 claims versus 344,000) and the Core CPI (+.02%) both turning in improved data results. The kicker especially is the Weekly Jobless Claims, which sent markets through the roof in a single day few weeks ago and could do so again today. We are also due for a Philly Fed release at 10 AM, so that could stir things up today as well.

From an earnings point of view, retail (NYSEARCA:XRT) giants Target (NYSE:TGT) and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) have already released their earnings, the results of which are dismal at best. Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Gap (NYSE:GPS), and Ross (NASDAQ:ROST) are all scheduled to release their Q3 2013 earnings reports this afternoon at 4 PM. There is something ironic about winding down the earnings season with retail companies’ earnings reports just before Black Friday, especially if the retail company’s earnings report is bad.

All in all investors were spooked yesterday by the Fed minutes, which suggested (big surprise) that a taper was still in the cards. We could be looking at a “good news is bad” type of day today, however I bet that investors will appreciate the better economic data regarding jobs.

Hindsight is a Beach and We’re Playing on It:
Yesterday the stock market was good to us again, as we accurately predicted a decline for all three major indexes. The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) lost .36%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) lost .41%, and the NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ) lost .26%. Again I thought we were going to lose, as markets continued to surge throughout the morning, however the FOMC minutes slowed the bulls down into a bear trap.

Are Stocks driven by Need and Speed or Fear?
I would say stock markets are driven by a weird and strange combination of fear, hope, determination, hopelessness, and need for more records. Let’s see if that pans out.

Fun Fact:
And its that time of year again: Market Watch just posted an article featuring the top luxury cars for 2014. The winner? The Ferrari La Ferrari, priced at a humble $1.3 million. The loser (cough cough)? The BMW M6 Coupe. I wouldn’t mind being the loser in this car lot. Click here to read the full article.

My Secret Sauce is Green:
I predict a green day. Like the band, only way, way better.

This stock market forecast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice nor an investment recommendation. Past performance is no guarantee of or indication of future performance and your performance may vary widely from any that may be indicated in this column. There is risk of loss in all investing and trading activities and you should consult your financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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