Sterling and dollar are the two strongest major currencies this week. Market focus is turning back from risk events, like Greece, to policy divergence of major central banks. Dollar is being supported by Fed chair Janet Yellen's upbeat comments in testimony before Congress. While it's still unsure whether Fed will hike rate in September or December, Yellen's comment affirmed that it will happen this year, preferably earlier than later. Meanwhile, BoE governor Mark Carney also said earlier this week that rate hike might happen earlier given the performance of the UK economy. Meanwhile, New Zealand dollar is the weakest one as markets are starting to expect another rate cut from RBNZ in the upcoming meeting. Euro is the second weakest even if Greece risk subsides.
Yesterday, ECB announced to raise the ELA ceiling by 900M euro with the haircuts on collateral unchanged. At the press conference, President Mario Draghi suggested that it is 'not controversial' that a debt relief to Greece is 'necessary'. This echoed IMF's demand earlier this week that the lender threatened to withdraw support for the bailout unless Greece's European leaders agree to substantial debt relief. On monetary policy (conventional and unconventional), the ECB, as widely expected, left the main refi rate unchanged and reiterated that commitment to continue its asset purchase of 60B euro per month at least until September 2016. More in ECB Lifted ELA Cap On Greece, Draghi Called For Debt Relief.
On the data front, the main focus is in US session today. US will release inflation and housing data. Headline is expected to rise to 0.1% yoy in June while core CPI is expected to rise to 1.8% yoy. Housing starts are expected to rise to 1.09m annualized rate in June. Building permits are expected to drop to 1.11m. U of Michigan consumer sentiment is expected to rise to 96.5 in July. Canada will also release inflation data and CPI is expected to rise to 1.0% yoy in June while core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 2.2% yoy.