Stabilizing The Gains

Published 02/10/2020, 12:14 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
ESH25
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The first week of February played out as a large bull engulf breakout candle that negated all the losses of the final two weeks of January. If you recall, it became a feedback loop squeeze/daily W-shaped bottom where the bears tried their best to break below the key trending supports, but they failed miserably. The only thing worth noting is that it was the first time the market closed below the trending daily 20-EMA for a couple sessions since the October 2019 acceleration. Other than that, it was the same outcome: higher lows and higher highs.

The main takeaway is last week’s expansion into the new all-time high targets alongside the confirmation of another round of trapped bears/weak hands shaken out. This week, in general, will likely be focused on stabilizing the gains made from last week and seeing if the bull train does the usual "hold half and go" setup by holding above the 50-61.8% fib retracement region at all times.

What’s Next?

Friday closed at 3323 at the Emini S&P 500 (ES) and this week is fairly easy given our predetermined key levels in an existing uptrend alongside with the respective goal lines for both sides. Traders should take advantage of the daily 8/20-EMA momentum when applicable due to the nature of leveraging the trend/bull train.

Summing Up Our Game Plan

  • Currently, all dips are deemed buyable especially when micro is above 3290 alongside with 3265 as the must hold trending daily support level on a daily closing basis.
  • We must be aware that the last week’s low of 3222 that we’ve been using as a key reference point for momentum could very well be the month’s low already just like the previous 4 months doing the same structure.
  • Absolutely, no naked shorting is allowed in full effect again, except if just hedging the uber bullish portfolio with lottos like a couple weeks ago when we mentioned. Reasonable hedging vs highs is perfectly fine if you’re in similar shoes like us since the start of Q2 2019 like us because throwaway lottos at key points do more good than harm.
  • 4hr white/red line projections are valid when above 3265 and especially when above 3290 due to the structure of last week’s bullish formation and the likelihood of new ATHs due to the ongoing momentum towards 3345/3350/3367. (Note: two targets have been fulfilled already last week and extension targets will be upgraded when applicable.)
  • Emini S&P 500
    Weekly Emini S&P 500
    Monthly Emini S&P 500
    4-Hour Emini S&P 500

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