SPY: Short Jittery Week Ahead

Published 05/27/2013, 12:26 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
Technically Speaking

RSI- the recent pullback in the RSI indicator has brought the stock below the overbought position. It is too early to tell whether or not the RSI will continue to move down.
ChartMACD- the MACD indicator has reached the top and it looks like it's now on its way down. This supports the move of the RSI indicator but I would like to point out another observation. If the crossover happens, the stock could continue down but if it moves sideways this could point to stronger momentum for the stock to keep moving up. It's something to watch.

Bollinger Bands®- having come to the middle Bollinger band for support, I will be curious to see if the stock will push through the band. But it looks like it has formed a week-but-well-defined support area. This is a very important point to watch because it could define whether the stock will move up or if it's just resting before it moves down again.

Summary: This present move down is only to the middle Bollinger band so far, and because of this I would not put a lot of importance on it just yet. The stock looks like it might have built a weak foundation which could see it move up again, but I'm not sure you will have to wait and see. I am going to watch the MACD indicator to see if it moves sideways and this will tell us a little bit more about how the stock will be moving over the next couple of weeks.

Current Events
The Dow rose for a 19th straight Tuesday before the slump began in later trading Wednesday. This is the longest Tuesday streak in history and the second longest weekday streak ever. Will the market go for 20 Tuesdays when Wall Street opens tomorrow after the long holiday weekend?

The last week in May will also bring data including a second pass at Q1 GDP, a read on consumer confidence and some more housing numbers.
This week could make it harder to figure out, considering that the long Memorial Day weekend typically signals the start of the summer.

Much of that rally has been driven by the Fed's continued economic stimulus. The pickup in volume suggested to some a shift in sentiment, though activity has been below average throughout the rally.

That's why Wednesday's reversal - where the Dow and the S&P 500 both rose more than 1 percent during the morning, but fell more than 1 percent in the afternoon - caused many investors to take notice.

"That's a change. Historically, when you get that kind of a reversal day, it kind of stalls things out for a while," said Frank Gretz, market analyst and technician for brokerage Shields & Co in New York.

Economic data has remained mixed, adding further uncertainty to market projections.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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